The 2024 US election was heavily influenced by disinformation, particularly from Donald Trump’s campaign, which featured numerous false claims and conspiracy theories. Despite his victory, experts suggest that while disinformation played a role, it was not the sole factor in voter decisions. The evolving media landscape, particularly after Elon Musk’s acquisition of X, has amplified misleading narratives, contributing to the erosion of trust in traditional journalism as many Americans now rely on social media for news.
Overview of the 2024 US Election
The 2024 US election campaign has been marred by a multitude of falsehoods, with even the election’s victor, Donald Trump, disseminating strategic untruths. But did this disinformation truly sway the election results?
Donald Trump emerged victorious in the US presidential race, with his campaign largely characterized by a grim portrayal of the nation and the propagation of misleading claims and conspiracy theories. Even on election day, Trump utilized the social media platform X to allege fraudulent activities surrounding the election.
Following Trump’s victory, many voices that had previously warned of potential election fraud fell silent. The narrative that Democrats manipulated the election was widely circulated by Republicans, Trump’s supporters, and Trump himself, featuring numerous unfounded allegations regarding illegal voting by non-citizens, faulty voting machines, or the destruction of mail-in ballots.
Prior to the election, disinformation was rampant, aimed at eroding public trust in the electoral process.
The Role of Disinformation in Election Outcomes
The outcome of the election raises critical questions regarding the reliability of facts and the extent to which disinformation influenced voter decisions. Currently, there are no definitive statistics to address this issue empirically. Nonetheless, initial evaluations by disinformation experts offer some perspective. “I interpret this election’s results as suggesting that while disinformation was not a decisive factor, neither were the facts,” states Curd Knüpfer, Associate Professor of Political Communication at the Digital Democracy Centre at the University of Southern Denmark, in an interview with the ARD fact-checker.
Knüpfer asserts that access to factual information was available. “It’s misleading to claim that voters were completely duped in 2024, and to suggest that Trump’s statements were entirely unfounded.” Although Trump has propagated numerous falsehoods, he has been quite transparent about his positions and intentions.
“Perhaps it’s time for us to collectively reflect on what it signifies when voters seem indifferent to the truth and the origins of that indifference,” Knüpfer suggests. Factors such as group identity, preconceived stereotypes, narratives, and perceived threats from other communities are crucial to consider.
Contributing Factors to Voter Behavior
Katja Muñoz, a research associate at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), shares a similar viewpoint: “Disinformation has certainly played a substantial role, but it wasn’t the sole determinant. While lies have circulated, the emphasis should also be on the underlying strategies rather than just the narratives themselves.” Individual stories likely did not significantly sway many voters but instead served to reinforce existing beliefs, Muñoz elaborates to the ARD fact-checker.
The issue runs deeper. “Numerous dynamics and causal relationships have significantly influenced this scenario.” A critical element is Elon Musk’s acquisition of X, which has provided a platform for certain actors to amplify their messages. “This has led to a situation where specific content gets prioritized, creating impressions that may not align with reality. We’re witnessing the emergence of alternative narratives,” Muñoz explains.
The US election campaign has been characterized by disinformation tailored to specific demographics.
The Impact of Musk’s Political Messaging
Since Musk’s endorsement of Trump, his political posts have garnered over 17 billion views, according to a report by the NGO ‘Center for Countering Digital Hate.’ This figure eclipses the total views for all US political campaign advertisements on X during the same timeframe, which would have required an estimated 24 million dollars to achieve through traditional advertising.
At least 87 of Musk’s posts have propagated claims regarding the US elections that fact-checkers have identified as false or misleading, collectively amassing two billion views. Notably, none of these posts included a Community Note, which serves to highlight and correct inaccuracies shared by users on X.
In legal contexts, Musk’s controversial support for Donald Trump has been upheld.
The Evolving Media Landscape
An extensive study conducted over eight years has shed light on the reasons behind Trump’s continued electoral success, similar to his 2016 victory. This recently published analysis scrutinized over 200 million social media posts related to US election campaigns since 2016, indicating a “significant impact of disinformation on the political landscape.”
From 2016 to 2020, the volume of disinformation quadrupled. The study highlights that disinformation not only affects voter decisions but also often serves as a catalyst for media coverage, thus integrating itself into socio-political dialogues. This year, falsehoods surrounding immigration and hurricane victim compensation prominently benefited Trump.
Numerous false claims have circulated about the leading candidates. Whether a campaign targets opponents or elevates one’s own candidate, the primary goal is to generate discourse, according to study co-author Raoul Kübler. “The content itself is becoming less relevant,” Kübler notes, emphasizing that Trump’s social media dominance is partly due to his ability to ignite discussions centered on polarizing issues.
The Washington Post tracked Trump’s misleading claims during his initial term, tallying 30,573 instances. Current data on claims made during his latest campaign is not yet available. However, Knüpfer questions the efficacy of merely counting these lies: “If we keep tallying Trump’s falsehoods without contemplating their implications, what progress are we making?”
The Causes Behind the Proliferation of Disinformation
The widespread dissemination of such false claims can be traced to the information landscape in the US. “For some time now, we have been navigating a media ecosystem that often does not adhere to professional journalism standards,” Knüpfer explains. This suggests that “the news audiences receive may not be crafted according to the norms and values associated with traditional broadcast or print journalism.” “We are confronted with a vast media apparatus that leans pro-Republican, perpetuating such narratives across numerous online platforms,” he adds.
Muñoz believes that the fragmentation of the information landscape has led to influencers becoming alternative trusted sources within their communities. “As they share content over the years, emotional ties and parasocial relationships develop, causing individuals to trust exaggerations or lies more than traditional media fact-checks,” she notes.
This trend is supported by findings from the Digital News Report 2024 from the Reuters Institute, which indicates that 48 percent of Americans obtain their news from social media, while trust in traditional media sits at only 32 percent. Disinformation continues to thrive in this environment.