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An incident this week shows the danger of turbulence. Researchers warn of an increase due to climate change.
That’s what it’s about: On Tuesday, a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore experienced severe turbulence. Over Myanmar, the plane lost almost 2,000 meters in altitude in a very short time. The passengers were subjected to enormous forces. Several people were injured and one man died. It is still unclear how this could have happened. A report will have to clarify this.
This is how common turbulence is: There are no worldwide figures. According to the US accident investigation authority NTSB, around 65,000 flights are affected by turbulence every year, around 5,000 of which are severe. By comparison: according to the responsible aviation authority FAA, over ten million passenger flights take off in the USA every year. In response to a query, Swiss wrote: “We record a handful of such reports each year.” Fatalities are extremely rare – before the current incident, the last such incident was recorded in 1997. Injuries are more common – but most of them are crew members.
These types of turbulence exist: Thunderstorms or storms are usually responsible for shaking on board. Different air masses come together. According to experts, Southeast Asia is particularly affected. Such conditions are fundamentally less problematic because they are predictable. This is not the case with the so-called “Clear Air Turbulence” (abbreviated CAT). This can also occur in cloudless conditions. “This is basically the most dangerous because it is often not shown on the radar,” says Laura Frommberg from the aviation portal Aerotelegraph.
Is severe turbulence increasing? Swiss says: “We are currently not seeing any significant change in the number of reports of certain turbulences.” However, there are researchers who expect an increase in cases in the future due to changing weather conditions caused by climate change. A study by the University of Reading in the United Kingdom has shown that between 1979 and 2020, the number of incidents attributable to clear air turbulence on the heavily flown North Atlantic route increased by over 50 percent.
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“During turbulence, an aircraft is exposed to different layers of air, often due to temperature differences,” explains aviation expert Laura Frommberg from the industry portal Aerotelegraph. (Symbol image, 09/28/22)
IMAGO / Pond5 Images
How do the airlines react? Safety on board has steadily improved over the past few decades; modern aircraft are now equipped with weather radars. Upon request, Swiss writes: “Our pilots can fly around turbulence in most cases – it is possible at any time to adjust the flight route for weather reasons in consultation with the responsible air traffic control center.” The airline also has centers in Zurich and New York that monitor weather events in the air.
The outlook: The US Congress recently passed a law that provides more funding for research into the dangers of turbulence. Clear air turbulence can currently only be avoided using schematic forecasts. But new technology is on the way, as Nature magazine reports. New radar devices allow more precise forecasts to be made over several kilometers, but are still very heavy and expensive. It is unclear how the climate will affect flying. The head of the study from Reading, Paul Williams, warned Nature magazine: “For every ten minutes of turbulence during a flight, there could be 20 to 30 minutes in the future.”