Turkey scores in dispute over Scandinavians joining NATO

There is no doubt that Turkey initially prevailed with its demands in the dispute over Sweden and Finland joining NATO. The Scandinavians not only assure that they will take decisive action against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and their supporters. They also pledge not to provide support to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria and the movement led by Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen, which blames Ankara for the failed July 2016 coup.

In this context, both states refer to new, stricter anti-terror laws in the memorandum signed in a hurry on Tuesday evening before the NATO summit in Madrid. The governments in Stockholm and Helsinki have also pledged to cooperate more closely with Turkey on the extradition of wanted extremists and to act in the spirit of solidarity between alliance partners when arms are exported to the NATO country.

This means that the most important demands of Turkish President Erdogan have been met. In May, to the surprise of his allies, he opposed the Scandinavians joining, thereby jeopardizing NATO unity in the middle of the Ukraine war. Since then he has repeatedly railed against the support of the Scandinavians for “terrorists”. He will be able to sell the fact that he has now received satisfaction as an important political success at home.

In truth, Erdogan was never concerned with Sweden and Finland

However, it is questionable whether Erdogan’s main concern when blocking the accession of the Swedes and Finns was their attitude towards the PKK and other unpopular groups. He certainly dislikes the sympathy that parts of the Swedish left have for the Kurdish extremists. He may also be annoyed that the PKK sympathizers have a lot of leeway to collect donations, spread propaganda and demonstrate for their cause because of the liberal press and assembly laws in Finland and Sweden.

But as much as this goes against Turkey’s grain, it is ultimately of marginal importance to them. Whether Sweden will take tougher action against PKK-affiliated groups or whether Finland will expel a handful of members of the opposition is irrelevant to the Kurdish conflict. Because of these questions alone, Erdogan would hardly have risked starting a dispute with NATO in the middle of the war with Russia and thus provoking the displeasure of the allies.

Just because of a handful of Kurdish extremists in Sweden, Erdogan will hardly have provoked the dispute with the NATO partners.

In truth, Erdogan’s veto was probably intended to extort concessions from the United States on two much more important points. It is about the delivery of new F-16 fighter jets that has been requested for months and about the green light for a new offensive against the YPG in northern Syria, which Ankara has been preparing for weeks. On Wednesday, Erdogan did at least get a long-awaited talk with President Biden. It will probably only become clear in the coming weeks whether this has also accommodated him.

Should this not be the case, Turkey’s triumph could even turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory. It remains to be seen whether much will really change in the matter of the Madrid Memorandum. Rhetorically speaking, the Scandinavians have come a long way to accommodate the Turks on a number of points, but there are few concrete innovations. The PKK had previously been banned as a terrorist organization under current EU law in Sweden and Finland.

Much will now depend on how the authorities implement the agreement. It is hardly to be expected that they will shut down all Kurdish publishing houses, newspapers and associations and hand over masses of PKK sympathizers to Turkey, especially since the law sets narrow limits for them here. Whether the Scandinavians will deliver arms to Turkey is also at their discretion. With his veto, Erdogan has certainly gained respect on the world stage. It remains to be seen whether the effort will ultimately pay off.