- On May 14th the president will be elected in Turkey.
- Things could get tight for incumbent Recep Tayipp Erdogan. His challenger Kilicdaroglu can count on broad support.
- People with a Turkish passport can vote in Switzerland until May 7th.
Recep Tayipp Erdogan has been in power in Turkey for more than 20 years. According to polls, however, the Turkish President now has to worry about his re-election – he is just behind his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
The mobilization is great, also in Switzerland: People who are eligible to vote with a Turkish passport have been able to cast their votes here since the weekend. More than 100,000 Turkish people who are eligible to vote live in Switzerland. Voting centers have been set up in Zurich, Geneva and Bern so that they can cast their vote.
Expert: Voting behavior abroad relevant
The majority of Turks living in Switzerland generally vote against Erdogan and his Islamic-conservative AKP, explains Middle East expert Ali Sonay. This can be explained by the history of migration. “The majority of people immigrated to Switzerland after the military coup in 1980, who went into exile and who also mostly come from minorities.”
The voices of Turks abroad could even play a special role this time, says Middle East expert Christoph Ramm from the University of Bern. “The voting behavior abroad is so relevant this time because the election predictions are so tight and the challenger is ahead. Of course, if the majority of foreign countries vote for Erdogan, that can definitely be the deciding factor. However, it is not so easy to foresee because the opposition is also mobilizing very strongly and people who fled from Erdogan after 2016 may also vote against him.”
In Germany in particular there is a large potential voter, explains SRF Turkey expert Philipp Zahn. Half of the approximately 5.5 million people with a Turkish passport outside their home country live in Germany. However, it is to be expected that Turks who emigrated to Germany would be more likely to vote for Erdogan. Because, according to Zahn, many in Germany come from Anatolia or the mountain regions, and there are still many people behind the incumbent president.
Allegations against Erdogan after earthquake
Kemal Kilicdaroglu could now actually become a threat to Erdogan. In a video that has been clicked millions of times, he criticized Erdogan. “If Erdogan stays, this onion will soon cost a hundred lira.” A hundred lira, that would be around 4.60 francs. Turkey is currently struggling with inflation rates of 50 percent and more, and people are concerned about the high food prices.
This is where the qualified economist comes in at just the right place. Kemal Kilicdaroglu called Erdogan a tyrant during an election campaign on May 1 and promised to abolish the criminal offense of insulting the president. He fights for the welfare state and an independent judiciary. Five opposition parties have rallied around him. He has a good chance of replacing Erdogan.
Meanwhile, the Turkish President is attacking his challenger more and more aggressively. But Erdogan’s popularity is reaching its limits. The consequences of the massive earthquake in February can still be seen and felt in south-eastern Turkey. Many of those affected blame Erdogan’s government for the fact that building regulations were disregarded and aid was distributed poorly or too late.