Karl Lauterbach has earned a lot of respect in the pandemic. His medical expertise could make him the traffic light minister of health. But there are also points that speak against him.
#wirwollenKarl – Twitter users are never at a loss for simple slogans. And Karl Lauterbach, who is meant here, is somehow part of Twitter, an “SPD member of the Bundestag who still tweets himself,” as he says in his profile writes. Lauterbach posts daily entries on the latest corona studies from all over the world, on the pandemic situation, on forecasts and models – and receives a lot of attention for this.
In the past more than 20 months, the epidemiologist and health economist has earned a lot of respect across party lines. In countless interviews, articles and statements, he became one of the most important explainers of pandemics in Germany and, by the way, was mostly correct with his predictions. He also got involved and worked as a vaccination doctor. He expressed his opinion, despite unobjective criticism and malice, despite hatred and threats against himself, although he now needs police protection.
Part of the Twitter community thanks him: They want Karl, as the health minister of the Ampel coalition. But what the Twitter bubble wants rarely comes true. Even if it seems logical: The health department will be occupied by the SPD, according to the coalition agreement presented yesterday. And Lauterbach is currently the party’s best-known health expert, to which he has been a member since 2001 (initially he was a CDU member, but has since become a member of the CDU “100 percent social democrat”).
He is not averse himself, even if he recently formulated it more cautiously than a few months ago. “I’ve been in this field for a long time, so it would be a surprise if I basically didn’t want to do that,” he told RTL Direkt on Wednesday evening. “But there are others who can, this is not about me,” he added.
So the matter is far from scratched, for reasons of parity and proportionality, for reasons within the party and perhaps also for personal reasons.
Parity and proportional representation
Only at the beginning of December, at the party congress, does the SPD want to announce its ministerial name – in the health department in particular, valuable time is wasted in which the future incumbent could discuss the pandemic with the incumbent head of department Jens Spahn. In addition, Chancellor-designate Olaf Scholz must keep his parity promise when awarding office, namely equal numbers of men and women.
The FDP does not stick to it and is expected to send three men and one woman to the cabinet table. Again, women are likely to predominate among the five Green Ministers, but that is not enough. Ultimately, it is up to the Social Democrats to balance things out – which is why, in the end, more women could become heads of ministries. For a man like Lauterbach, the chances are reduced.
In addition, there is proportional representation, i.e. the participation of as many groups and interest groups of the party as possible. Lauterbach’s state association of North Rhine-Westphalia is already represented in the front row of the SPD with Minister Svenja Schulze and parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich. Both could also sit in the new government – the health department is then more likely to go to a different national association.
Of course, there are good reasons for Lauterbach as minister: Even before the pandemic, the 58-year-old was an accomplished health expert. The coronavirus outbreak also made him known outside of the specialist community, thanks to his knowledge as an epidemiologist. Such a specialist is currently worth gold – and would help avoid some mistakes. But a ministerial office is not just based on specialist knowledge. Is Lauterbach, who once belonged to Peer Steinbrück’s competence team but was never active in the executive, also able to cope with it in terms of organization? And does he have enough support in his own party, in his own parliamentary group?
Lauterbach, the loner
Lauterbach is not unpopular there, he is sociable and has a sense of humor. He can even poke fun at himself like in one Video with Carolin Kebekus. But he is also considered stubborn and heady. “Karl read a study” has been a household word in the group since he was deputy chairman there. Again and again he is said to have quoted from scientific work in parliamentary group meetings, not only from the health sector, it is said in parliamentary groups. Since then, he has been regarded by some as a nerd.
Lauterbach is a scientist through and through, almost a nerd. Although he has a doctorate and is a licensed doctor, he spent most of his professional life at universities and institutes before he entered the Bundestag in 2005. During the pandemic, he reads studies on the coronavirus with a glass of wine until late at night, then shares, evaluates and comments on them on Twitter.
Lauterbach was often represented in the media in recent months, in interviews and talk shows. The omnipresence is not only well received by parliamentary group colleagues, especially since Lauterbach does not officially represent the party in terms of health policy. He is not considered a team person. Spin networks, pull strings – these are not Lauterbach’s strengths. But as the head of a large house, especially during a pandemic, this is urgently needed.
Scholz wants to “get down to work very intensively in the coming days to bring about an excellent occupation in the social democratic departments,” as he said on Wednesday. Is he thinking of Lauterbach? Despite all competence, this is considered unlikely. The Saxon Minister of Social Affairs Petra Köpping, with whom the East German SPD associations could be served, and Sabine Dittmar, the health policy spokeswoman for the SPD parliamentary group from Bavaria, are more likely to be traded. The latter is also a member of the Bundestag’s health committee; she is a doctor with practical experience. Lauterbach could then still become the minister’s parliamentary state secretary. Or take on a role in the planned crisis team. And Twitter stays with him anyway. They want Karl there.