contents
Will the right-wing alliance around Salvini and Berlusconi pose a threat to election winner Meloni? An expert classifies.
How dangerous are Lega boss Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi from Forza Italia for the election winner Giorgia Meloni? “Both have destructive potential, albeit for different reasons,” says Giovanni Orsina from the renowned Luiss University in Rome. Salvini must fear for his claim to leadership in the Lega and will therefore try to distinguish himself in the Meloni government, i.e. make difficulties.
Lega wants to go back to basics
In his homeland he lost massively to the Fratelli. It is not for nothing that the founder of the Lega Nord and foster father, Umberto Bossi, founded a «Comitato del Nord». A committee that is going back to the party’s roots, which could grow into a revolt against Salvini.
“You can only judge in five to six months whether there will be an uprising,” believes Orsina. First you have to wait for the government to be formed: How much can Salvini get out for the Lega? Then the resistance would have to organize itself in the highly hierarchical Lega tailored to Salvini, and then the elections in the home country of Lombardy would come in spring 2023. “Only then would it become clear whether Salvini would be overthrown or not.”
Legend:
Appearances are deceptive: There could well be differences of opinion between Meloni and Salvini.
Keystone/GIUSEPPE LAMI
The “Comitato del Nord” is a challenge to Salvini because he formed the Lega Nord, which had originally advocated secession and later autonomy for northern Italy, into an all-Italian Lega party, modeled on Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement national in France. However, according to Orsina, this concept has lost its appeal in northern Italy.
«Salvini has to distinguish himself in the government. But his voters, especially entrepreneurs, want a stable government.”
Meloni’s second government partner, Silvio Berlusconi, is a threat to the stability of the government because his Forza Italia is essentially a one-man party. Berlusconi is old, frail and in poor health; how long he can hold the reins of the party in his hand is uncertain: “And without Berlusconi, Forza Italia will be unstable and could even fall apart.”
Bad omens for a stable government, one might think. Yes, says Orsina, but there are more important reasons that speak against it. The Meloni government could even last five years, an entire legislature, he believes. «Salvini has to distinguish himself in the government. But his voters, especially entrepreneurs, want a stable government,” says Orsini. And if Salvini overthrows the Meloni government, with whom does Salvini want to ally himself? What is the future of a Salvini if his party shrinks by half in the election and then leaves the government?
What is Italy’s policy?
The September 25 election is judged very differently in Europe and in Italy. Europe is concerned, Italy is not. Who is right? “Italy is right,” says Orsina. Because anyone who, like Giorgia Meloni, pursues a policy of “Italy first” can make no other policy than Draghi.
In the Ukraine war and towards the EU, which has only paid out 40 billion euros out of around 200 billion from the exceptionally generous corona aid fund for Italy, the Meloni government will not take a fundamentally different position than Draghi.
In these days of political uncertainty in Italy, only one thing is certain for Orsina: “Matteo Salvini will not become Minister of the Interior”. Nor will he be given a central ministry for domestic or foreign policy.