Ukraine: Can Putin’s announcements really change the course of the war?


Nicholas Tonev
modified to

10:46 a.m., September 22, 2022

After seven months of a war that seemed distant to them, the Russian population seems to be waking up to reality. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin’s new nuclear threats against the West, but also and above all the mobilization of 300,000 Russian reservists led to a great exodus. Thousands of young people have tried to flee the country to Turkey or any other visa-free destination. In several cities, improvised demonstrations against the war led to the arrest of more than 1,000 people.

Avoid spreading the image of a weakened Russia

These mobilizations can become a problem for Vladimir Putin, because for the first time, the demonstrations were not confined to Saint Petersburg and Moscow. They have affected dozens of cities, even beyond Siberia. This repression shows that the authorities are not calm. They want to quickly stifle any idea of ​​protest and eliminate the images that blur the reality of the illusion imposed by propaganda.

For the Kremlin, mastering this kind of movement is essential, because partial mobilization will rhyme with recruitment in Western Russia. It is therefore no longer just the regions beyond the Urals that will bury the dead.

500,000 men needed to overthrow Ukraine

With the dispatch of 300,000 men, Russia has made the correct military diagnosis. “He can’t pass because he has no soldiers, but he has the armaments”, explains a Ukrainian soldier present on the Donbass front. The Russians therefore have plenty of equipment, but no one to use it.

With 300,000 more men and if the Kremlin solves logistical problems, such as equipment, transport or food, the situation can change. According to a member of Ukrainian intelligence, the reference figure for being able to operate effectively on such a large front is around 500,000 available soldiers. In theory, Russia would achieve this with the announcement of the partial mobilization. In theory, because you have to withdraw the losses of seven months of war and then succeed in getting your hands on the reservists.





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