Nina Droff, with AFP
modified to
1:47 p.m., February 23, 2022
Ukraine mobilized its reservists on Wednesday and called on its nationals to leave Russia, the specter of a Russian invasion becoming ever more pressing and Vladimir Putin insisting ever more on his demands despite Western sanctions. These announcements are a new step in the escalation of tensions in the worst geopolitical crisis in Europe since the Cold War. Russia, which has massed 150,000 troops at the borders and recognized the independence of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, is accused of preparing a major attack against its neighbor.
Ukrainian Security Council calls for state of emergency
Ukraine’s Security Council has called for a state of emergency in the country amid fears of an imminent Russian invasion. “The Ukrainian Parliament must endorse this decision within 48 hours,” said Secretary of the Security and National Defense Council Oleksiï Danilov after a meeting of this structure.
Three million Ukrainian nationals in Russia
Acknowledging the imminent danger, Ukraine on Wednesday ordered the mobilization of army reservists aged 18 to 60 and asked its nationals to “leave immediately” Russia, while some three million of them they live and work in the country.
Earlier Wednesday, on Defenders of the Fatherland Day, the Russian president signaled his intransigence on his country’s interests and security, which are “non-negotiable”, despite warnings and Western sanctions.
Putin demands demilitarization of Ukraine
Vladimir Putin, while saying he is “open to dialogue”, requires Westerners to promise that Ukraine will never join NATO and, since Tuesday evening, a “demilitarization” of the country as well as territorial concessions to pro-Russian separatists.
Reserving the right to send troops to the two territories whose independence he recognized, the self-proclaimed “republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk, Vladimir Putin claimed all of these regions on Tuesday, while the rebels do not control only a third party.
The first sanctions from the international community
US President Joe Biden said Tuesday’s green light from the Russian parliament for a military operation in Ukraine was “the start of an invasion”, adding, however, that there was “still time to avoid the worst”. Westerners have taken the first sanctions in response to the recognition of the separatists that Kiev has been fighting for eight years, a conflict that has killed more than 14,000 people.
Berlin froze the gigantic Nord Stream II gas pipeline project, which was to bring even more Russian gas to Germany, and Joe Biden announced a “first tranche” of sanctions aimed at preventing Moscow from raising Western funds to pay off its debt. Sanctions have also been announced by the European Union, Japan, Australia, Canada and Britain.
Russia has a large sovereign wealth fund
These measures remain modest for the moment compared to those promised in the event of an invasion and Russia can boast of having accumulated nearly 640 billion dollars in its foreign exchange reserves and 183 billion in its sovereign wealth fund to deal with them. .
The head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken also announced that he would not meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov as planned, just like his French counterpart, Jean-Yves Le Drian. Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday castigated criticism of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, saying he was succumbing to “Western pressure”.
Fighting continues between Ukrainian army and separatists
On the eastern front, fighting continued between the Ukrainian army and separatists backed by Moscow. “They started to shoot much harder,” Dmitri Maksimenko, a miner from the small town of Krasnogorivka, located not far from the front on the Ukrainian side, told AFP. He says he was “shocked” to learn that Russia has recognized the independence of the separatists. “I don’t know what will happen next. To be honest, I’m a little scared,” he says.
The separatists of Lugansk announced Wednesday the death of a fighter, shot according to them by a Ukrainian sniper. A civilian was also killed in shelling during the night, according to the rebels. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country demanded “weapons” and guarantees on its EU membership on Tuesday, said he was considering a break in diplomatic relations with Moscow.
The Russian president, who has dictated the tempo from the start, maintains the mystery of his intentions and has several options before him: invade all of Ukraine, expand the area under the control of the separatists or wrest a new negotiated status quo. Because an occupation could be expensive in a hostile country and Russia wants to obtain from NATO its retreat in Eastern Europe as well as the end of its enlargement policy. Requirements rejected so far.