Ukraine at “Hard but fair”
“We need maximum support”
By Marko Schlichting
06/13/2023, 04:19 am
Ukraine’s summer offensive is underway. But the troops are making slower progress than last year, and Kiev admits that. What’s next? And what role could the Western allies play? The military historian Sönke Neitzel considers the diplomatic options to be very limited.
The long-awaited offensive of the Ukrainian army began last week. So far she has not had any real success. A few smaller settlements have been liberated, but with heavy casualties. In “Hart aber fair” on ARD, the guests talk about the prospects for Ukraine and the role of the West.
“It’s slowing down”
Alexander Rodnyansky is economic adviser to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In “Hart aber fair” he comments on military issues. Despite the blowing up of the Kakhovka dam, which he blames on Russia, he doesn’t believe that the Russian army will slow down the Ukrainian armed forces. “We’ve had some successes at the moment,” he emphasizes – and mentions gains in terrain near Zaporizhia of at least seven kilometers in the last two or three days. “It’s slower, not as fast as last year,” says Rodnyansky. However, the Ukrainian offensive at the time also had a strong element of surprise. The current offensive was expected, the Russian army had had enough time to fortify its positions: “You can’t expect the army to liberate thousands of kilometers in the next few days. That’s unrealistic. Unfortunately, it will be difficult. But that doesn’t mean we won’t be able to keep defending our country.” But this would require further help from the West.
For Rodnyansky it is also clear that only the Russian army could be the perpetrator of the blowing up of the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine. His arguments are clear: the Russian troops have now blown up another dam in the region and are hindering the evacuation of the Ukrainian population: “The Russians are shooting at our rescue teams. You can’t imagine a more immoral approach,” he says.
Military historian Sönke Neitzel is also convinced that Russian forces are responsible for the dam blow-up. “This is a further escalation of the war,” he says, “and Russia will now try everything to fight back the counteroffensive and thereby also put political pressure on Ukraine.”
“Everything points to Russia,” agrees Ralf Stegner of the SPD. For him, the dam blast is the confirmation of a realization: “There are no clean wars. Instead, there are war crimes, destruction, death and suffering.” That’s why it’s wrong to keep relying on military aid, you also have to talk about how the war can be ended.
“When Putin gives the order, the war will be over”
The FDP military expert Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann has a clear answer: “If the Russian President gives Putin the order that his troops should withdraw, the war will be over.” The Russian defense minister recently rejected diplomatic negotiations. “You always need two for a diplomatic solution, but here the second person at the table is missing,” says Strack-Zimmermann, who doesn’t seem to be really focused that evening, keeps losing the thread and clearly has problems expressing herself clearly .
Stegner is certain that a diplomatic solution has been discussed behind closed doors for a long time. That’s how diplomacy works, he explains.
Military historian Neitzel takes a similar view, but doesn’t really believe that the West plays a role. “Look at Brazil, they just showed us the bird,” he says. And further: “The West still lives in the belief that there is a rule-based world order. But that no longer exists.” It is good that Germany is trying to find a diplomatic solution to end the war. However, one must recognize that the possibilities for this are very limited. “Sometimes we live under the illusion that we would manage the other states. But we think far beyond our league.”
Strack-Zimmermann disagrees: China is also concerned with economic interests, there it is very well perceived that the West is considering who it will trade with in the next few years. But Neitzel has serious doubts about China’s position. It is in the interests of the People’s Republic if the West is tied down in the Ukraine war. So he does not focus on the situation in the South China Sea. “This war is also in China’s interest. Otherwise the Chinese would have put massive pressure on Russia to end it long ago.”
Strack-Zimmermann proposes support for the F-16 coalition
At the moment, however, an end to the war is not in sight. That is why Ukraine will not progress without further support with weapons from the West. This includes F-16 fighter jets. In any case, Germany will not deliver them, says Strack-Zimmermann. However, Germany can provide airfields and help train pilots. But here the decision lies with Chancellor Scholz.
For the presidential adviser, however, F-16 fighter jets are not important. “As far as I know, we would take any modern combat aircraft and use it. It’s about a common goal: the liberation of Ukraine. And we want to lose as few men as possible.” Deliveries of arms at this point in time make sense in order to be able to enter into peace negotiations later. “It’s about achieving a long-term peace with another regime in Russia. It’s about maximum change in the Russian regime. And that now requires maximum support from Ukraine, with maximum supplies of arms, including the air force.”