The Ukraine is surprisingly gaining ground on Bakhmut’s southern flank. Wagner boss Prigozhin even fears encirclement. The impression quickly arises that the tide is turning in Bachmut. But this assumption would be premature.
For a long time it looked as if Bakhmut was about to fall. Troops of the Russian mercenary militia Wagner had intensified their attacks in the last few weeks and gradually – and with high losses – conquered 90 percent of the city. Then the tide suddenly turned: First, Wagner boss Yewegni Prigozhin complained about poor cooperation with the regular Russian army, then he threatened to withdraw his troops because the promised ammunition from Russia was missing.
The Wagner group remains in Bachmut for the time being, ostensibly because of the ammunition that has arrived, but the Ukrainians manage to break through southwest of the city. According to their own statements, they were able to push back units of a Russian brigade and Wagner fighters for a good two kilometers. Prigozhin promptly confirmed the advance with the words that the “meat grinder” would now “rotate in the opposite direction”. He even goes one step further and explains that the Ukrainian counter-offensive began at Bakhmut.
At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized in an interview with the BBC that a counteroffensive would require more time and equipment. Both are statements that cannot be relied upon. Because the success of a counter-offensive consists largely of an element of surprise and deception. So it is quite possible that Zelenskyj only wants to ensure that the Russians feel safe while Prigozhin wants to prepare his followers for the counterattack.
US tank Bradley in action near Bachmut
There are indications that the counter-offensive is already underway, at least in part. Video footage southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora circulating on Twitter and Telegram not only shows Ukrainian soldiers, but also the US Bradley infantry fighting vehicle. In a cutout, the tailgate and other distinctive features of the tank are clearly visible. The use of armored personnel carriers is a clear indicator of a so-called heavyweight formation for the offensive, says Markus Reisner, Colonel of the Austrian Armed Forces, ntv.de. Infantry fighting vehicles supplied by the West have also been sighted in the Donbass, as well as engineering equipment such as bridge-laying tanks and tanks for mine clearance.
The use of the US tank Bradley in Bachmut suggests that the offensive has begun at least in certain areas. This is also supported by the fact that specially trained soldiers are needed to operate the tank. “These are units that were also trained on the British Challenger and the German Leopard and were specially made available for the offensive,” said Reisner. At the same time, Ukraine has also sent other elite units, such as soldiers from the international legion, which includes trained foreign volunteers, to Bakhmut after the situation there worsened.
The fact that the Ukrainians recaptured land near Bila Hora can be verified on the basis of several videos and recordings on the Internet. There, the troops managed to break through Russian defenses where one unit borders another, says Reisner. “A defender’s weakness is always where there is a so-called interface.” It is customary to attack at this point because each unit assumes the border is being patrolled. “You have to imagine that the units are connected like a string of pearls,” explains Reisner. Each bead is a unit. “If there is a gap between two pearls or even one missing, then that’s the moment to attack.”
“Meat grinder” rotates in both directions
Ukraine did just that, successfully pushing back Wagner troops in a favorable section of terrain. There the 72nd rifle brigade of the Russians had lost contact, according to Reisner. Difficulties between Wagner troops and the Russian military have recently made headlines. Both groups accused each other of not adequately protecting the other unit and of working poorly together. Above all, there is great pressure on the Wagner troops to take Bachmut completely. They’ve almost made it – in the end they’re only missing a small part in the west, which the Ukrainians are doggedly holding on to.
But the Wagner troops form a so-called heavyweight, as shown by massive air raids on the enemy. Recently, extremely dangerous weapons have been used, such as glide bombs or the TOS-1, an armored multiple rocket launcher that fires rockets with thermobaric warheads. “The impact of such a projectile causes an impact of 1400 degrees in a radius of 25 meters in 1.4 seconds,” says Reisner. Both weapons are also difficult to intercept.
It is therefore important to understand that the “meat grinder” in Bachmut always turns in both directions anyway, says Reisner. The Ukrainian advance on the southern flank brought limited gains in territory, but at the same time it didn’t break through, “as one would say in the military.” So one cannot yet speak of a change in Bachmut. However, it cannot be ruled out that this will still happen if the Ukrainians achieve further successes.