Ukraine war near Illner
“We’re not making ourselves very popular right now”
By Marko Schlichting
04/22/2022, 04:25 am
Should Germany deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine, and if so, how and which ones? Former Merkel advisor Vad speaks of a “phantom debate” on “Maybrit Illner”. It’s not about Ukraine winning, it’s about the war ending quickly. However, other guests consider this assessment to be too short-sighted.
Whether Germany can and should deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine is a matter of debate. However, as part of a ring exchange with Slovenia, the federal government wants to enable the use of Soviet-designed weapon systems in the country. Slovenia is to receive modern weapons from Germany for this purpose. That’s not enough, says CDU defense expert Roderich Kiesewetter on “Maybrit Illner” on ZDF. The guests disagreed as to which weapons make sense for Ukraine in the current situation. Just like the question of the goals that Germany and NATO are pursuing with the support and what they want to achieve in the end. A comment by former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s long-standing military adviser has caused irritation.
“Putin needs victory by May 9th”
Publicist and Green Party politician Marina Weisband assumes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is striving to end the hot phase of the war on May 9th. Until then he will seek a decision. She doesn’t believe that the war will drag on into the summer. “I’m assuming that the conflict will then freeze. That will cause major problems for both sides,” she says. Now it’s about what Ukraine can achieve by then. “I call my family in Kyiv every day, and I’m snapped at every day as to why Germany isn’t helping the way other countries are doing. I’m very confused myself by the government’s actions. We’re not making ourselves very popular right now,” reports the in Ukrainian-born politician.
The federal government wants to provide Ukraine with two billion euros, but has paid around 30 billion to Russia since the beginning of the year. “But I want peace, for my family, for the people in Ukraine and in Germany. And peace is secured by strong international law that prevents strong states from invading weak states. And for this international law to be worth anything, it has to be defended .”
Military expert Claudia Major also assumes that Putin wants to announce at least a partial victory by May 9th. He is probably interested in controlling the Donbas and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Ukraine faces Russia in a very large space. To defend themselves they now need tanks and armored vehicles, anti-aircraft weapons and artillery. “The question is whether the western states are able to support Ukraine quickly now,” says the expert. At the same time, NATO must consider how it can support Ukraine in the long term.
“We’re having a phantom debate”
The former military advisor to ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel, Major General a. D. Erich Vad, partially agrees. The area where fighting is currently taking place is tank-friendly terrain, he says, before adding: “But the alliance partners don’t supply infantry fighting vehicles.” That is also militarily nonsensical at the moment, “because we don’t have the training time, because we send technicians along, set up a logistics chain, have to ensure the delivery of spare parts and transport in general.” Putin will not allow 100 Leopard tanks to be transported by rail, and that is why they will never reach eastern Ukraine. “Heavy weapons have no operational relevance for the current war. That’s a phantom debate we’re having here right now,” says the military expert.
For ex-Federal Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, the procedure is clear: the USA, France or England are not currently delivering any heavy weapons to Ukraine. “There is a simple solution to the political debate in Germany: we do everything that the United States and England do, and vice versa,” says the SPD politician
But it doesn’t seem to be that easy, because CDU defense expert Roderich Kiesewetter objects: The Americans would very well supply heavy weapons, namely howitzers and artillery ammunition. Ukraine is on the brink of collapse, he says. “I have the impression that parts of the Social Democrats have already given up on Ukraine. Now it’s a matter of making it clear to our population that we have to put on a pound here,” said the politician.
“No military victory by either side”
A dispute arises when Marina Weisband demands that Chancellor Scholz make it clear what the government actually wants to achieve. “Scholz said in his speech that Ukraine has to defend itself, but he didn’t say they have to win.” Defense expert Vad replies that it is not at all about the victory of one side in this conflict, but about a quick end: “We cannot use a proxy war in Central Europe for years that has the potential to escalate into a nuclear war.” Kiesewetter sees it differently: it is fatal to talk about Ukraine not being able to win. “That drives Putin to escalate the war militarily again. I’m afraid that we’re using rhetoric like this to bring about the use of nuclear weapons, because Putin sees that the West won’t do anything anyway.”
Weisband also seems appalled by Vad’s statement. She says: “A victory for Ukraine does not mean that Ukraine conquers Russia, but that the Russian army retreats behind the borders. The Ukrainian victory means that the killing of civilians stops. Doesn’t that have to be our goal ?” And she summarizes: “It’s about sending a clear signal. We have to become self-confident. And we have to stand up for what’s right. Everyone together.”