Ukraine war at Maybrit Illner
“We are entering a brutal phase”
By Marko Schlichting
6/16/2023 4:33 am
The Kiev army’s summer offensive has made slow progress so far. Pictures of Ukrainian losses are circulating. In the Maybrit Illner talk show, the guests agree: The war in Eastern Europe could last a long time – but a Ukrainian success is still possible.
The images of the Ukrainian army’s summer offensive are gruesome. Dead soldiers and destroyed Western tanks are repeatedly shown, and the Russian army appears to be fending off attempts by the Ukrainians to break through. The Ukrainian military leadership reports small gains in territory. How successful is the Ukrainian offensive really? Maybrit Illner wants to find out on Thursday evening on her ZDF talk show. The guests are pretty much unanimous in their assessment.
“The pictures are part of a war that none of us wanted,” says SPD leader Lars Klingbeil. The CDU military expert Roderich Kiesewetter adds: “We should understand that this war is a marathon.” The high losses, especially among the civilian population, are a result of the Russian terrorist attacks. Ukrainian soldiers tried everything to liberate their country, with support from the west.
After an interruption in the autumn, the western countries are now providing more support again, and Federal Defense Minister Pistorius has also made sure of that. “But Ukraine will not survive the war without our support. That’s why we have to do more. And we have to prepare our people for the fact that we are going into a long-term war.” The goal must be the liberation and restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty so that Russia does not find imitators. Russia must give up its colonial claims.
Warning against Moscow’s propaganda
Former diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger believes the photos that have been published in recent days are Russian propaganda. “If the principle is correct that you have to attack with a triple strength, then that means that you have to reckon with losses. Otherwise you wouldn’t have to penetrate with significantly larger resources,” said Ischinger.
André Wüstner speaks of a “phase of massive secrecy” on the Ukrainian side. The army colonel of the Bundeswehr and chairman of the German Bundeswehr Association is certain: the Ministry of Defense and the Federal Intelligence Service have a good view of the situation. “But it is not appropriate to stand by the situation map and record where which battle group and which brigade is or is already operating in a command area.”
Russia is not only waging a war against Ukraine, but also an information war against the West. “I would never believe the Russian propaganda,” says Wüstner. But what one could foresee: in the coming weeks and months, armed forces would clash. A lot of material will be destroyed. “We’re entering a brutal phase and the images are getting even more brutal.”
“Ukraine is regaining the initiative”
Last fall, the Ukrainian army had the element of surprise on its side. That’s different now, explains Wüstner. The Russian army has been able to prepare for the offensive in recent months and has laid minefields, anti-tank ditches, so-called dragon’s teeth and defensive position systems. “And it will be really difficult for the Ukrainian army to test where the weak points are and dare to break in.” That’s why the “good and brutal combat morale” of the Ukrainian soldiers is an advantage. The Russian armed forces are quantitatively well positioned, but the Ukrainian army is qualitative. One can see that the Ukrainians are able to gain ground. “Ukraine is regaining the initiative.”
For Kiesewetter it is important that the losses on the Ukrainian side are quickly replaced by the West. “It’s not enough that we’ve delivered. We need to go into production now and deliver more.” Klingbeil agrees: “There can never be enough support for Ukraine,” he says. “What’s happening now is that we’re ramping up production. And that’s where the Minister of Defense comes in and discusses with the industry that munitions are being mass-produced across Europe.” However, you can now see the deficits of the Bundeswehr very clearly.
No guarantee of “beautiful peace”
As far as the result of the Ukrainian offensive is concerned, conflict researcher Nicole Deitelhoff advises not to expect too much. “I don’t think we will see such a resounding success that at the end of this summer we will say that Ukraine is completely liberated.”
Ischinger also agrees. He says he doesn’t see any signs of fatigue on the Russian side. The war will last a very long time, and: “I think it’s possible that in the end we will have something like a dividing line like before the war started. We may then have a dirty truce that hurts left and right every day We can help make sure that doesn’t happen, but we may not be able to prevent it. There’s no guarantee that you’ll end up with a really nice peace.”