On Russian state television, former Colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok expressed his pessimism about the war situation in Ukraine. His performance will have been approved by the Russian leadership. Even before the war broke out, Khodaryonok was warning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not going according to plan. Now the failure is also being discussed on Russian state television.
The Russian population should not swallow any “information tranquilizer pills”. Thus begins former Red Army colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok in his scathing analysis of the current war situation on Russian state television. “The situation is getting worse and worse for us,” says the military expert, referring to the massive Western arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Extraordinary exchange on Russian state TV’s top talk show about Ukraine. Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok tells anchor Olga Skabeyeva “the situation for us will clearly get worse…we’re in total geopolitical isolation…the situation is not normal.” pic.twitter.com/ExMwVDszsk
— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) May 16, 2022
Russia must reckon with the fact that a million Ukrainian soldiers will soon be equipped with Western weapons. In addition, it is a common misconception in Russia that the combat morale of Ukrainian soldiers is declining. Rather, the Ukrainian soldiers are highly motivated to defend their homeland against Russia. Khodaryonok also laments the “complete geopolitical isolation” of Russia. This position must be overcome.
The appearance of Khodarjonok in the state television talk show is amazing. The moderator Olga Skabeeva tries to refute his statements in part, but this is unsuccessful. Also, Khodaryonok is not shouted down or constantly interrupted, as is usual with insubordinate statements on Russian television. The Russia expert Janis Kluge from the German think tank called Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik assumes sothat Khordarjonok’s appearance has been approved from above. The broadcaster will not have been surprised by his statements. Even before the war began, Khodaryonok was critical of a possible invasion of Ukraine.
Precise prognosis of the course of the war
Khordayonok published one three weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine essay, in which he predicted the course of the war with astonishing accuracy. He predicted that an invasion of Ukraine could not be brought to a successful conclusion quickly. He noted that the Ukrainian army has become much more powerful over the past eight years and that Ukrainian soldiers cannot be defeated as quickly as in 2014.
Khordayonok also predicted difficult urban fighting in major Ukrainian cities and very accurately predicted the nature of Western support. For example, he explicitly addressed the American Lend-Lease Act from World War II, which enables rapid arms deliveries to Ukraine. This was passed by Congress at the end of April. He concludes his essay with a clear statement: “An armed conflict in Ukraine is not in Russia’s national interest.”
Chordayonok plays the role of the skeptical expert
Before that, Khordajonok also played the role of the skeptical expert on television, who dampened enthusiasm for the war. Just before the Russian military parade on May 9th he said that a general mobilization would help little. Khordajonok clearly pointed out that only well-trained soldiers and the latest technology would give Russia an advantage. In addition, Russia lacks the necessary resources to quickly turn the war in Ukraine in Russia’s favor.
So the views of Khordajonok were known to the TV station. It can be assumed that he was invited not in spite of but because of his views. It remains unclear why Russian propaganda is now presenting its own population with a more differentiated picture of the Ukraine war. However, it cannot be assumed that Chordajonok’s appearance was unplanned.