Ukraine: what does the suspension of Russia’s participation in the New Start nuclear treaty mean?

A martial tone, a long diatribe against Westerners who are “responsible for the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine” and in the middle of all this, an announcement that challenges. This Tuesday, during a long speech delivered at the Palace of Congresses in Moscow in front of the Russian political elite, three days before the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin announced the suspension of Moscow’s participation in the New Start treaty .

Concluded on April 8, 2010 in Prague between former US President Barack Obama and former Kremlin chief Dmitri Medvedev, this bilateral agreement provides for a limitation of the nuclear arsenal of the two giants in this area. Succeeding the Start I treaty, ratified in 1993 and the Sort agreement, signed in 2002, New Start limits the deployment of nuclear warheads to 1,550 for Moscow and Washington, which represents a decrease of 30% compared to the previous restriction fixed in 2002. The agreement also limits to 800 the number of launchers and heavy bombers on both sides. Finally, it provides for various mutual reviews of military sites, in order to ensure compliance with the treaty.

The logical consequence of the deterioration of relations between Moscow and Washington

Unilaterally, Vladimir Putin has therefore decided to discharge himself of these obligations, while calling on the Russian authorities to be “ready for nuclear weapons tests” in the event that Washington carries them out. “This announcement is very clearly part of a deterioration in relations between the United States and Russia. Arms control is a silent but very present victim”, deciphers with Europe 1 Héloïse Fayet, coordinator of the Deterrence program and proliferation at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

The non-proliferation of nuclear weapons was indeed one of the last channels of communication between Moscow and Washington on which the two parties regularly exchanged information. “There are still two agreements, one signed in 1988 and the Hague code of conduct. Information is likely to be exchanged on nuclear risk, but these two agreements are not as binding on the normative level. than New Start”, recalls Héloïse Fayet.

Last August, the master of the Kremlin had already suspended American inspections of his military sites. “Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian inspectors could no longer go to the United States,” explains the researcher. What Washington had then denied. By suspending its participation in the New Start agreement on Tuesday, Moscow is therefore crossing an additional line, not without consequence. “When the United States and Russia engage in exercises that involve their strategic forces, they are normally required to notify each other. So if Russia no longer notifies any shots, the Americans will have no way of knowing. whether or not it is an exercise”, underlines Héloïse Fayet.

“This decision in no way prepares the use of nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil”

If this suspension does not amount to a total withdrawal from the agreement, “it deals a very hard blow to the international architecture of arms control and shows that Vladimir Putin wishes to build his own architecture which would be more favorable to him”, considers the researcher. However, in the current state of things, it does not seem necessary to sink into catastrophism. “I don’t think we will see a development of the Russian arsenal. It would take a long time and would imply a similar development on the American side. But that’s not what the Russians want,” says Héloïse Fayet. This Tuesday evening, Moscow also promised that it would continue to respect the limitations provided for in the agreement.

Finally, regarding the war in Ukraine, the researcher refuses to believe in a significant escalation. “This decision in no way prepares for the use of nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil. They are not the same weapons, that has nothing to do with it,” she reassures.