Ukraine would turn the EU upside down economically

“We’re taking your country into the EU,” Angela Merkel said to Volodymyr Zelenskiy on the phone. But his screams of joy are short-lived. Because the German chancellor dialed the wrong number, she thought Montenegro was on the phone.

The scene is from the 2015 Ukrainian TV series Servants of the People, in which Zelensky plays a history teacher who unexpectedly becomes President of Ukraine. Seven years later, Selenski is also president in real life. And in the midst of fighting the Russian incursion, the former actor does everything in his power to prevent the scene from repeating itself.

The traffic light is green

On Wednesday, Zelenski phoned no fewer than seven EU heads of state and government until the evening. On the short message service Twitter he noted in minute detail who wants to make Ukraine a candidate for EU membership. The decision is to be made at the summit in Brussels, which begins on Thursday.

And because Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron and Mario Draghi, after some hesitation, promised the support of Germany, France and Italy during a visit to Kyiv, there are many indications that the necessary consensus will be reached.

But what would Ukraine’s membership of the EU actually mean?

Big and poor

Unlike Croatia, which was recently admitted, Ukraine is initially a huge country. It would be the second largest EU country after France with an area of ​​around 603,000 square kilometers.

The war is a reminder of the vastness of the country. The areas occupied by Russia until mid-June are as large as Austria and Denmark together.

In terms of population, Ukraine also stands out from most of the other candidate countries. With 41 million inhabitants, the country is the fifth most populous EU country, behind Spain and ahead of Poland.

The candidates in the Balkans, as well as Moldova and Georgia, are significantly smaller. With almost 7 million inhabitants, Serbia is at the top of this group. Only Turkey is in the same weight class – but with 84 million inhabitants it is a case in itself.

Because of the war, many Ukrainians fled to the EU. According to the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR 5.1 million refugees from Ukraine have registered in the rest of Europe. That corresponds to 12 percent of the population.

Even before the war, the country was also significantly poorer than Bulgaria, the poorest country in the EU. The Ukrainian gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2020 was around 3300 euros. In contrast, the average for the 27 EU countries is nine times higher.

Ukraine would thus become the largest recipient of transfer payments, so-called cohesion funds, from the other EU countries. And as far as agriculture is concerned, the country would upset the previous relations in the confederation of states.

While farmers in the EU contributed an average of 1.9 percent to GDP in 2020, in Ukraine it was a whopping 11 percent. The area used for agriculture is larger than Germany. About a fifth of the labor force works on a farm, and exports of commodities such as wheat, rye, barley, sunflower oil, corn and canola contribute 40 percent of export earnings. Ukraine feeds 400 million people.

The blockade of the Ukrainian export ports and the targeted sabotage of the sector by Russia have correspondingly serious effects. They lead to higher food prices and threaten food security in countries like Yemen, Afghanistan and Ethiopia.

The war is costing many lives and will make Ukraine even poorer. In order to keep the state reasonably functional, the International Monetary Fund expects an external financing requirement of 5 billion dollars per month. Reconstruction and closing the gap to the richer EU countries will also be very expensive. Corruption must be curbed to ensure that all the money goes to the right place.

There is still a long way to go from candidate to member

But there is a problem. Ukraine was in 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index the non-governmental organization Transparency International only ranks 122 out of 180 countries, tied with the absolutist hereditary monarchy of Eswatini (the former Swaziland).

After all, the country has gained points since 2012. But the EU Commission continues to describe corruption as a “serious challenge across the country”.

Brussels praises Kyiv in the report for the attention of the heads of state and government for a successful decentralization reform, the strengthening of the independence of the judiciary and for the establishment of a “well-functioning” supreme anti-corruption court.

But there is still a lot to do. The Commission lists numerous concrete reforms without which the path to the EU cannot continue. Kyiv should fight corruption, modernize the administration, strengthen the judicial system and better protect fundamental rights. This is a Herculean task even in times of peace.

But President Zelensky can at least have legitimate hopes that he will soon receive a phone call with good news from the EU and that his country will draw level with Montenegro on its way to the EU.