Russia and Ukraine have been fighting over Bakhmut for six months. Above all, the mercenaries of the Wagner Group relentlessly attack the former city of 70,000 inhabitants. Thousands of soldiers die on both sides – without the situation at the front changing much. What’s behind it?
For the first time in six months, Russia has completely captured a Ukrainian city. Soledar fell after months of battle. This was announced by the commander of a Ukrainian drone unit last weekend. For the Russians, the next goal should now be the encirclement of Bakhmut.
Bakhmut is 20 kilometers south of Soledar, had a population of around 70,000 before the Russian war of aggression, but now, according to Selenskyj, there are only “a few civilians left”. At the moment only 7000 people are said to live in the city.
Russia has been trying to conquer Bakhmut for a good six months. So far without success. The result is thousands of dead soldiers on both sides. Hardly any battle in the now almost one-year war is so bloody. The writes of a “bitter stalemate that has taken on the rhythm of a heavyweight fight”. “New York Times” in a report on the battles for Bakhmut.
The Ukrainian soldiers at the front report that they have worse material but are “much more flexible” than the Russian attackers. “That has to do with the fact that the Ukrainian armed forces have dug themselves in very deeply and extensively in recent years, especially in the Donbass. So, roughly speaking, there are three deeply staggered lines of defense,” says Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces ntv. “The Russians managed to break through the first line of defense in several places. And Bakhmut is now the next line of defense. It’s a massive base, the Ukrainians call it a fortress.”
Thousands of dead Wagner soldiers
The Russians want to take the Bakhmut fortress with all their might in order to move further inland. “The Russian side is trying to suck in Ukraine, bring it within range of their artillery and then destroy it. That’s why the fighting is so fierce here,” explains Reisner.
For the Ukrainian army, it is about stopping the Russian attackers on the second line of defense and wearing them down in months of fighting. That worked once before in the early stages of the war. At that time, the Ukrainian soldiers fought fiercely for the cities of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk long after they had been destroyed.”
In retrospect, it turned out how valuable the Ukrainians’ will to fight was. That Foreign Policy Research Institute recently analyzed that the grueling battles for Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk had extremely weakened the Russian army. This is what made Ukraine’s successful counterattacks possible in the fall, say analysts Rob Lee and Michael Kofmann.
The Russians lost so many soldiers and materiel that the Ukrainians’ strategy was dubbed “meat grinder” by military observers, in reference to the Battle of Verdun in World War I. According to US intelligence estimates, 4,000 Wagner soldiers were killed and 10,000 injured on the Soledar-Bachmut front.
Soledar could become a Russian Pyrrhic victory
Ukraine may be using this strategy a second time in Bachmut. The capture of Soledar could be another Pyrrhic victory for the Russians. “Moscow’s capture of Soledar – and possibly Bakhmut as well – may weigh less than the losses inflicted on Russian forces in this battle,” speculates the “Financial Times”.
According to Reisner, whether the strategy of subsequently converting a defeat suffered after a long battle into victory will also work this time depends primarily on how many weapons Ukraine gets from Western countries. And how many new, fresh soldiers Russia can send to the front. Especially since many Ukrainian soldiers died on the Soledar-Bakhmut front.
The Ukraine is currently trying to “refresh itself in order to go on the offensive in the spring,” analyzes Reisner. Military expert Anthony King of Britain’s Warwick University is quoted by the Financial Times as saying that this is the best scenario from Kiev’s point of view. “Ideally, Ukraine will be able to hold the front line around Bakhmut with minimal forces. But Ukrainian forces could be pinned down instead,” warns King. “Russia’s strategy may not be as stupid as it looks.” Russia is currently trying to hold and strengthen the site “to be in a better position in the spring,” adds Reisner on ntv.
“Kramatorsk would be crucial”
For Ukraine, Bakhmut has long since become another symbol of the resistance of an entire people. For Russia it is simply about the most important war success in months. For his propaganda, President Vladimir Putin absolutely needs good news. And the small town would be a kind of gateway for Russia to conquer the rest of the illegally annexed Donetsk region.
Lieutenant Colonel Michael Karl from the think tank GIDS sees Soledar and Bachmut as strategically important places on the way to the much more important city of Kramatorsk. “Soledar and Bachmut are important positions on the so-called Ukrainian rampart on the way to the central area of Ukraine. The city of Kramatorsk would be decisive there.”
The former city of Kramatorsk, with a population of 170,000, is an important hub in the Donetsk region, about 35 kilometers as the crow flies from Bakhmut. “That’s why Soledar and Bachmut are so important,” says Karl on ntv. If Kiev’s troops also lost control of Bakhmut after Soledar, the front line in the Donetsk region would be “dented,” according to Karl. However, even in this scenario, the expert still sees opportunities to prevent progress to Kramatorsk because Ukraine has built additional defense lines between Bakhmut and Kramatorsk.
Wagner boss is interested in tunnel systems
Another reason for Russia’s month-long battle for Soledar and Bakhmut could be the region’s salt mines and tunnels. Soledar means “salt” and “gift” in Russian. A single salt mining company from Soledar covered 90 percent of Ukraine’s salt needs before the war. Since Russia’s invasion, production has been idle and Ukraine has to import its salt. Bachmut is also known for its underground tunnel systems. Here, around 70 meters below ground, sparkling wines are produced in former gypsum mines. Artwinery, the largest sparkling wine producer in Eastern Europe, filled around 25 million bottles a year before the Russian invasion.
Apparently, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group and known as “Putin’s cook,” now wants to grab the salt and gypsum mines. US intelligence sources say that Prigozhin’s main interest is commercial. The Wagner boss himself described the tunnel system under Soledar and Bachmut at Telegram as “the icing on the cake”. It offers the possibility of recording “people at a depth of 80 to 100 meters” and “tanks and armored personnel carriers could even move in it,” says Prigozhin.
It was Prigozhin’s Wagner fighters who bombed Soledar from the air and with artillery in the past few months and have now taken it. The regular Russian army had not been able to do this. The Wagner troops literally sacrificed thousands of soldiers as cannon fodder. “The intention was to tie down the Ukrainian forces, bring them closer and then shell them with artillery,” explains Reisner.
In the Ukraine war, the troops of the Wagner Group are, so to speak, in competition with the regular Russian army. Prigozhin repeatedly criticizes the military leadership in Moscow, at the same time he praises his fighters effusively. When When the Russian leadership announced the capture of Soledar, the Wagner mercenaries were not mentioned. Prigozhin then complained that there were “constant attempts to “steal” his group’s victories.” As a result, the Russian Defense Ministry released a statement praising the “courage” of the Wagner fighters at Soledar.
Prigozhin could become a threat to Putin
The process shows how self-confident Prigozhin has become. And how he may also use the battle for Soledar and Bachmut to position himself for higher tasks. “We can see very clearly that Wagner is playing an increasingly important role. And Prigozchin is demanding his place at the table because, from his point of view, he is making a significant contribution to Russia being able to continue this war,” says Markus Reisner.
Some experts and observers even say that Prigozhin wants to succeed Putin as Russian president one day. “If, for example, the Wagner group were able to include Bakhmut and Prigozhin could present this result to the president, that would of course further strengthen his position. Then the question would have to be asked whether Putin himself could be in danger,” he said Reisner. However, the expert also points out that the question of a possible successor to Putin cannot yet be answered seriously.
Especially since the Wagner soldiers, despite the capture of Soledar, are still far from including Bachmut, like an analysis of the American “Institute for the Study of War” indicates. Accordingly, Russia would first have to control at least two highways west of Soledar in order to cut off the Ukrainian supply line to Bakhmut. And even then, Ukraine would have other logistics routes to supply its soldiers in Bakhmut. The bloody battle for Bakhmut is likely to continue for a long time.
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