Ukrainians defy Kremlin troops
Military expert: Artillery ammunition is not the biggest problem
March 25, 2024, 3:00 p.m
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Ukrainian troops are still holding out against the Russian invasion. However, after a visit to the front, a military expert warns of a shortage of personnel. The problem is even bigger than the lack of artillery ammunition. There are also reports of missing defenses.
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady does not consider the lack of artillery ammunition to be the biggest challenge facing Ukrainian troops in the current fighting. In an interview with tagesschau.de, the analyst from the Institute for International Strategic Studies in London said: “We didn’t see that as the main problem on our last visit to the front.” Rather, this is the lack of personnel in Kiev’s troops.
Gady said he and his colleague Mike Kofman calculated “that the Ukrainian army needs to fire approximately 2,000 to 3,000 rounds per day to maintain a defensive strategy. Ukraine currently has enough artillery ammunition for this, although the rate of fire appears to be steadily decreasing.” If the billion-dollar aid package from the USA is approved in the House of Representatives, “it could only be a matter of days or weeks until this additional ammunition arrives,” said Gady.
In an interview with ntv.de in February, military expert Colonel Reisner from the Austrian army gave the number of daily grenades fired by the Ukrainians as 2,000 – with an average of 10,000 Russian projectiles. “The hunger for ammunition is increasingly becoming the biggest problem for the Ukrainian troops,” said Reisner.
Ukrainian soldiers at the front repeatedly complained to ntv reporters about a lack of artillery ammunition. The Institute for War Studies (ISW) also recently warned that some sections of the front are particularly poorly equipped because the scarce material is being directed to the most hotly contested sectors.
Gady: Kiev could have reacted to the personnel shortage earlier
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady told tagesschau.de about what he sees as the central challenge facing Kiev’s troops, the lack of personnel: “It is the most difficult problem and cannot be solved immediately. It takes months before new troops can be sent to the front “It will probably not be ready before the end of the summer. They must be adequately trained, because the use of poorly trained soldiers increases the risk of high casualties and reduces motivation and combat effectiveness.”
The personnel problem became apparent last fall at the latest and Ukraine could have reacted earlier, said Gady. The fighting morale is said to be “still very high”. Even if the troops would wonder what the next step was. “Compared to my visit before the start of the offensive a year ago, a certain lack of purpose is noticeable.”
The background is that the prospect of a major offensive to liberate areas – like last summer – does not currently exist. In order to survive and withstand the Russian invaders, the Ukrainians are instead building up defenses. But that happens too late, it is often said.
“This is the third and immediate problem that we could see – a lack of defenses that have not been systematically trained,” Gady said. ntv reporter Kavita Sharma also recently met soldiers who reported similar things. “The deeper you dig, the better off you will be, the more likely you are to stay alive,” said one fighter. But the army leadership neglected to expand the facilities.