Uncertainty surrounds pension adjustments as the Social Security financing bill progresses to the Senate, including a proposed six-month delay in annual revaluation. This postponement could lower expected increases for basic pensions, affecting beneficiaries financially. While the minimum old-age pension is set for January revaluation, the government is considering protections for smaller pensions. Opposition parties are pushing for the removal of the delay, while discussions on pension thresholds continue. Projected increases for 2025 remain unclear.
January 2025 or July 2025? The Uncertainty Continues
The timeline for pension adjustments remains uncertain as the Social Security financing bill progresses to the Senate without any input from deputies on its most discussed provision. The political landscape is fraught with unpredictability, especially regarding the 2025 budget and the upcoming Social Security budget.
In the National Assembly, votes on amendments have proven to be erratic and often contrary to the government’s wishes. Currently, the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) includes a proposal to temporarily freeze basic pensions, leaving many questions unanswered as it heads to the Senate. So far, there has been no implementation of the 49-3 procedure. However, under Article 47-1 of the Constitution, which limits the debate duration in Parliament, the original text—with a few handpicked amendments—has been submitted to the Senate. Notably, Article 23, which pertains to the postponement of pension revaluation, has not been addressed by the deputies.
Impact of the 6-Month Postponement on Pensions
According to the initial provisions of the bill, all basic pensions—including those administered by Cnav and Carsat, as well as pensions for civil servants and related supplementary pensions like Ircantec—will face a six-month delay in their annual revaluation. This means pensions will be adjusted starting in July instead of January.
This postponement is not only inconvenient for beneficiaries but also financially detrimental. The revaluation, which is typically calculated to be around 2.3% in January 2025, is expected to drop to 1.8% or lower when recalculated in July, according to estimates from Bercy.
The situation raises concerns about the percentage increase for pensions in 2025, particularly for those who depend on these funds.
Government’s Stance on Small Pensions
While the proposed bill impacts all pensions, the minimum old-age pension (Aspa) is set to be revalued in January 2025 as per the usual schedule. Prime Minister Michel Barnier indicated that discussions are ongoing to explore how to adjust this situation to better safeguard smaller pensions. He stated, “We are examining options to provide better protection for the smallest pensions,” reflecting a willingness to make concessions.
Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin echoed this sentiment, expressing readiness to consider adjustments for small pensions, emphasizing the need to find an appropriate threshold, potentially around 1,200 to 1,400 euros.
The Opposition’s Demands
Opposition parties are advocating for the complete removal of the pension revaluation postponement, and ideally, a repeal of the pension reform itself. The complexity of the parliamentary standoff is evident, with the opposition proposing amendments aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of the six-month freeze. A total of 106 amendments have been introduced regarding Article 23 of the Social Security financing bill, which outlines this postponement.
Various left-wing groups, the RN, and some deputies from the “central bloc” and LR are rallying to limit the negative impact of this freeze. However, these amendments have yet to be debated publicly, as discussions stalled at Article 18, leaving the 106 amendments for Article 23 untouched.
Status of the Bill Sent to the Senate
As the bill has been forwarded to the Senate, no changes regarding pensions have been made. Article 23, which deals with the postponement, remains unchanged from the version presented to the National Assembly in October.
Discussions on thresholds for small pensions are ongoing, but no definitive answers have emerged from Matignon.
Projected Pension Revaluations for 2025
Based on the current version of the PLFSS and government announcements, here’s what to expect for pension increases in 2025:
- Aspa (minimum old-age pension): Anticipated increase in January 2025 (possibly 2.3%)
- Small pensions: Increase proposed for January 2025… with a retroactive application in July, resulting in a catch-up for the first half of 2025. A two-phase increase in January and July is technically unfeasible according to Cnav, and differentiated rates are not currently planned. The expected increase will be around 1.8% or lower.
- Basic pensions (Carsat, Cnav, SRE, etc.): Projected increase in July 2025, likely around +1.8% or slightly less, depending on inflation trends.