Mobile home residents clean up debris in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, in Fort Myers, Florida (AFP/Giorgio VIERA)
Homes blown or underwater, infrastructure damaged, businesses and farms shut down: Hurricane Ian will weigh on American growth, cost tens of billions of dollars to insurers in Florida and leave many homeowners in difficulty. insured.
After making landfall west of Florida on Wednesday, Ian carried strong winds and torrential rains, sometimes turning streets into veritable canals.
The assessment of the extent of the devastation is still very preliminary. But it has already been established that “the hurricane is expected to severely disrupt economic activity over ten days, with power cuts, flight cancellations, suspension of energy production, impact on farms agricultural crops, in particular oranges”, lists Gregory Daco, economist for the firm EY-Parthenon.
Ian should ultimately weigh on Florida’s gross domestic product by 6% in the third quarter and on that of the United States by 0.3%, estimates the specialist.
As with all natural disasters, this economic impact will gradually lessen, especially when “a reconstruction effort in terms of port, road and residential infrastructure is initiated,” Daco told AFP. But this effect “unfolds over several years.”
In the shorter term, wind-related losses on residential and commercial properties should reach insurers between 22 and 32 billion dollars while losses related to floods could cost 6 to 15 billion dollars, calculated the specialized firm CoreLogic. .
– Climate change –
Hurricane Ian (AFP/Julia Han JANICKI)
“This is the costliest storm in Florida since Hurricane Andrew made landfall in 1992,” a CoreLogic official said in a statement released Thursday.
The rating agency Fitch, for its part, estimates the insured losses at between 25 and 40 billion dollars in Florida, an amount which could rise depending on the impact of Ian on the states further north. Its counterpart S&P Global Rating puts forward a figure of 30 to 40 billion dollars.
For the firm Moody’s Analytics, losses for insurers could reach 45 to 55 billion dollars, and the economic activity lost in Florida amount between 7 to 10 billion.
By taking an average estimate adjusted for inflation (46 billion), it would enter the top 10 of the most costly hurricanes in the United States, according to the firm’s calculations, behind in particular hurricanes Katrina in 2005 (160 billion), Harvey (124 billion) or Maria (111 billion) in 2017.
These initial estimates do not take into account buildings without flood insurance, which represent the vast majority of real estate in Florida.
According to data from the Milliman firm transmitted to AFP on Friday, only 18.5% of the houses in the counties subject to an evacuation order as the hurricane approaches have insurance taken out with the public body in charge of provide this kind of coverage (National flood insurance program). Very few private insurance companies offer this option.
The federal state sometimes comes to the aid of these uninsured by paying for temporary accommodation or basic repairs, but the aid remains limited.
The contributions for home insurance in Florida were already higher than elsewhere and the situation should not get better.
The state “already poses more environmental risks” than elsewhere, between its geography and climate change which makes hurricanes more devastating and raises the waters, explains to AFP Denise Rappmund, analyst for the Moody’s agency.
This situation is complicated by the fact that the inhabitants, encouraged by lawyers and building professionals, have an easy complaint, adds the specialist: Florida accounts for 8% of the country’s claims declarations, but for 75% of the declarations giving lead to litigation.
Most large insurance groups had already reduced their exposure to Florida, and many smaller, more local companies have gone bankrupt in recent years.
“We will probably see a few more liquidations,” predicts Ms. Rappmund.
© 2022 AFP
Did you like this article ? Share it with your friends with the buttons below.
