United States: very good surprise on the producer price index

(Boursier.com) — The American producer price index for the month of October 2022 rose by only 0.2% compared to the previous month, against a market consensus of +0.5 %. Excluding food and energy this time, US producer price inflation for October came out at…zero compared to September, against 0.4% market consensus. Over one year, the ‘PPI’ climbed 8% (consensus 8.3%) and 6.7% excluding food and energy (consensus 7.2%). This is therefore another very good surprise on the side of US inflation, which provides one more argument for the Fed to moderate the pace of its rate hikes, after four consecutive increases of 75 basis points. In September, the producer price index in the USA had risen by 0.4% compared to the previous month and by 8.5% over one year (+0.3% and +7.2% respectively, excluding food and energy).

The Empire State manufacturing index of the New York Fed, which has also just been published, came out positive at 4.5 in November, against -7 consensus and -9.1 a month earlier. This signals a return to expansion in manufacturing activity in this region.