“Unrealistic target”
Report: Traffic light misses target of 15 million electric cars by 2030
April 22, 2024, 1:43 p.m
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Transport Minister Wissing wants to put 15 million electric cars on the road by the end of the decade. However, according to an industry magazine, this goal cannot be achieved. Even if the willingness to purchase an electric car does not decrease, the requirement is unrealistic.
According to a report, the federal government will miss its self-imposed goal of 15 million electric cars by 2030. “Even in an optimistic scenario, a population of 8.65 million electric cars would be possible at best in 2030,” reported the industry magazine “Automobilwoche” in Munich. The market for new car registrations does not allow anything more. The magazine evaluated current approval and market data for its assessments.
The federal government wants 15 million electric cars to be on the roads in Germany by the end of the decade. Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing recently emphasized this goal at the beginning of April. Around 1.5 million electric cars are currently registered.
After public funding for electric cars ended at the end of last year, sales in this country collapsed. In March, the decline in new registrations of battery-powered cars was 28.9 percent year-on-year, according to the European manufacturers’ association Acea. The car industry therefore believes that the government’s goal is very difficult to achieve.
In a realistic base scenario, “Automobilwoche” expects 6.15 million electric cars by 2030. Under pessimistic assumptions, such as postponing the ban on combustion engines for new cars in the EU planned for 2035 by five years, it would only be 4.71 million electric cars -Cars by 2030. In none of the scenarios did the magazine assume newly launched funding programs.
In order to achieve the goal, the stock would have to grow by over 13.5 million electric cars within seven years. “Automobilwoche” expects a total of 20.9 million new registrations during this time. “So if all electric car registrations expand the stock, the electric car share of new registrations would have to be 65 percent on average for all years.” This shows how unrealistic the requirement is.
Demand has not fallen
However, the general willingness to buy a fully electric car has not decreased with the abolition of subsidies. As a survey by the ADAC shows, 22 percent of people who want to buy a new car within the next three years want to choose a fully electric vehicle. “This means that the share of fully electric vehicles remains at the previous year’s level,” explained the automobile club.
Drivers who already own an electric vehicle remain loyal to it in most cases. 79 percent of current electric drivers want to choose an electric car again, while ten percent each plan to return from electric vehicles to combustion or hybrid vehicles.