The 2024 US presidential election presents a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with results potentially undecided on election night due to expected close results in key states. Voters may await outcomes for days or weeks, echoing previous elections. Different states have varying counting rules, affecting the speed of results, particularly with mail-in ballots. Polls show both candidates nearly tied, suggesting chances for disputes, particularly if Harris wins, as distrust in the electoral process persists among a significant portion of the population.
US Election 2024
The upcoming US election is shaping up to be a closely contested race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. However, the outcome might not be clear on election night, especially if key states prove as competitive as anticipated.
On November 5th, the United States will choose a new president. Whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will take up residence in the White House is likely to remain uncertain by the end of election night. Polls indicate a neck-and-neck contest. If the situation is as tight as it was four years ago, voters may have to wait days or even weeks for a final result.
In 2020, Joe Biden was declared the winner four days after the election. George W. Bush’s victory over Al Gore in 2000 took over a month to resolve due to a manual recount of ballots in the crucial state of Florida. Conversely, a clear outcome might allow for an early declaration of the winner, as was the case with Trump’s victory eight years ago.
What are the voting procedures, how has the campaign unfolded, and why is the number 270 significant?
No Projections, No Exit Polls
Unlike in Germany, there are no projections released when polling places close, nor are there exit poll results available during ballot counting. However, if historical trends and primary polls indicate a candidate is almost certain to win a state, major US television networks will announce a winner. These announcements are considered highly reliable since networks have their own Decision Desks staffed with experienced experts.
Another key difference from Germany is the varying counting procedures across states, which may utilize either electronic or paper methods. In cases of very close results, most states mandate a manual recount. The swing states—those deemed critical for determining election outcomes—show significant differences in how mail-in ballots are counted.
In the previous election held during the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of voters opted for mail-in ballots, causing significant delays in the counting process in several states. This year, a reduction in mail-in voting participation is anticipated, and some states have enacted measures to speed up the counting process.
To secure the presidency, either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump must garner at least 270 electoral votes, which are allocated by individual states rather than based on a nationwide majority.
While outcomes can generally be predicted in most states, seven states in 2024 are deemed particularly contested: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A detailed overview of swing states is available here.
Many States, Many Rules
One of the key swing states is Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes. Unlike many other states, the counting of mail-in ballots there can only begin at 7:00 AM on election day.
In Wisconsin, ballot counting cannot begin until election morning as well. Additionally, in many large cities, returned mail-in ballots are sent to a central processing location, which may lead to partial results being reported only in the early hours of the following day.
In North Carolina, while pre-election verification of mail-in ballots can commence, ballots from military personnel stationed overseas that are received on election day will only be counted after the election is completed. In 2020, the counting process took ten days, and this time it might extend beyond a week.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, ballots from overseas voters are accepted for three days post-election, provided they are postmarked no later than November 5th, election day.
In 2020, Trump attempted to contest the election results in Georgia. What will the process look like there in 2024?
Election Integrity Concerns
The differences in counting regulations carry particular weight because generally, more Democrats vote by mail compared to Republicans. Furthermore, Democrats often perform better in urban areas, where counting tends to take longer than in rural regions that lean Republican.
In 2020, this dynamic allowed Trump to initially lead in several pivotal states, only for Biden to close the gap and gain narrow victories in states like Georgia and Arizona over hours and sometimes days.
As a result, Trump claimed, on election night 2020, that he was leading uncontestably and had won, even while many ballots were still uncounted. He and his supporters alleged election fraud and initiated legal actions in several states. However, courts found no evidence supporting claims of a ‘stolen election,’ a narrative that the Trump