US President Biden and the Democrats are trying to somehow push their agenda through Congress against the opposition of a minority in their own party. Is that enough for the congressional elections? Some already see a “red wave” rolling in.
No, he doesn’t think that this is an exaggeration, said US President Joe Biden and spoke to his Democrats in conscience: The majorities in the House of Representatives, in the Senate and my presidency are largely dependent on what happens with the package of measures “Build Back Better” happen, he warned his party colleagues three weeks ago. It is intended to expand social security, combat climate change and help the economy rethink. But for months the measures have been stuck in Congress despite its own majority, even if the House of Representatives passed a first version of the package. Now the Senate is dealing with it, and there it will probably continue to be torn apart.
It has been a little over 300 days since Biden’s presidency and the Democrat finds himself caught between his promises and his own claims and the reality in Congress. The economy drags on. Inflation is eating up wages. In some places in the country of consumption, even store shelves remain empty due to supply chain problems. The work in Congress wears down the Democrats, while the public is disappointed with the lack of results.
Biden and especially the left wing of his party wanted much more, but the narrow majorities do not allow it. Under pressure from their own ranks, the Democrats halved the size of the “Build Back Better” package from $ 3.5 trillion to $ 1.75 trillion. If they want to pass it in the Senate by the end of the year, it could shrink even further. Political strategists of the Democrats see it similarly to the head of state: The effects of the measures will determine how the ruling party will perform in the next year’s congressional elections. And thus about the weal and woe of Biden’s presidency.
Hardly a choice
Unrest is growing among Democrats. Some are already sharing them anonymously US media and ask: will Biden also be the right person in the future? You don’t ask alone. Biden’s decline in survey results began as early as August. Meanwhile, the head of state in the USA is like that unpopular than ever. Since the end of October he has not exceeded 43 percent approval; more than 51 percent are dissatisfied with him. At the same time in a first term, only Donald Trump was less popular.
The internal party scramble by the Democrats costs support from their own and the few independent voters. At the same time, they do not attract any others for it. But anyone who wants more than what Biden has delivered so far has little choice. Because of the wafer-thin majority in the Senate, the motto is: Everything is better than nothing. Even if it feels like it takes forever to come to an agreement. And both chambers of congress have to agree.
One reason for the delay in the House of Representatives was that some Democrats made their “yes” to “Build Back Better” contingent on the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) not forecasting new debt from the package of measures. The party opposition also likes to call these politicians corporate democrats because of their proximity to companies. They had also blocked the possibility of reversing tax breaks for the rich and the financial sector from Trump’s tenure.
Bad omens from Virginia
The elections in the states of Virginia and New Jersey at the beginning of November are exemplary of the consequences of this uncompromising policy of compromise between left and business-minded Democrats. Biden had completed his program at the climate summit in Glasgow, was confident that his gubernatorial candidate in Virginia would win and flew back to Washington. Upon arrival, the US President learned: He was wrong, the Democrat Terry McAuliffe had lost to his Republican rival Glenn Youngkin. Virginia borders the capital to the south and has been the safe bank of the Democrats for many years. Now the state is back on the map of the contested territories.
In post-election polls, it became clear that people were primarily expressing their dissatisfaction with the US president, and that more Republicans had gone to the polls at the same time. The most important motivation to vote was the economy, one could also say: one’s own situation. About a third of Americans currently consider it the most pressing problem. In Virginia voters told the Washington Post that they voted against the president’s candidate because he didn’t deliver: prices are rising, incomes are not coming; Relief social laws are a long time coming.
No Republican in Virginia had won a state election since 2009. A year ago, Biden won there by 10 percentage points over Trump. And now that. The defeat is seen as a clear indicator of a possible future, even outside of the Republican political prophets. The political magazine “FiveThirtyEight”, for example sees a possible “red wave” that Republicans ride into Congress and wash away their Democratic rivals.
The Democrats must be very concerned about the crucial percentage of the vote. Youngkin, who had been supported by ex-President Donald Trump, did particularly well with white voters, both women and men, and especially in the suburbs. A year ago it was practically the other way around. Biden had won mainly thanks to the suburbs, the link between cities and countryside. In particular, the prospect of another four years with the Republican had mobilized the Democrats and brought Biden to the White House.
“Will self-destruct”
The Democrats’ advantage is apparently gone again if the point is not to prevent Trump. An interpretation competition takes place almost permanently about why. After the defeat in Virginia, the editors-in-chief of the “New York Times” allied themselves with the “corporate democrats” and urged the president to finally come to his senses and to moderate himself politically. His flirtations with the left, called progressives, are therefore responsible for the dwindling trust of voters.
The numbers do not support this, on the contrary. Most of all, people want the things that are out of the package because of opposition from Democratic Senators like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema fell out: No longer included are paid parental leave, sick pay and non-contributory public community colleges, which would enable children in lower-income families in particular to study.
The expansion of Medicare, the state health aid for people over 65, has been cut. The drug prices for the elderly remain without government regulation, one of the most important measures to relieve the financial burden on voters and contrary to the promises that Democrats have been making for more than a decade. It could be deleted or watered down even more.
Medicines remain unregulated – and the prices are high.
(Photo: REUTERS)
And so Biden’s broad socio-political agenda has become a patchwork of many small programs, even limited in time; such as the non-contributory preschool for toddlers across the country. “Most of Biden’s legacy will be self-destructive,” New York Magazine already said judged.
Less benefits, less approval
The more the Democrats emphasize on social benefits, the less approval “Build Back Better” gets from its voters: 80 percent support the original package worth 3.5 trillion, compared to only 40 percent for the current half as large as one opinion poll shows. Independent voters are majority for the first and against the current. Among Republicans, opposition remains the same for both.
So is a “red wave” realistic? There are some indications that this is the case. Firstly, polls have been one thing and election results have been the other for years. It started with Trump and continued into midterms of 2018, when Republicans each did better than expected. Biden’s landslide success failed to materialize last year despite some corresponding forecasts. In Virginia and New Jersey, Republicans have once again exceeded expectations. Second, with regard to the congressional election, they now have a better one Survey average. And thirdly, the constituencies for the House of Representatives are currently being redrawn across the country, so far clearly for advantage the republican.
The corollary political consequence for Biden and the Democrats would be to deliver. They can advertise themselves with the family-friendly pandemic relief package and the infrastructure investments that were decided shortly after the Virginia election. For voters, however, social laws and the economy are decisive. If “Build Back Better” gets through the Senate and up to Biden’s signature, that could help the Democrats in the coming year.