USA: Inflation peak probably exceeded (Commerzbank)

( – Reacting to the fall in US inflation to +8.5% at an annual rate announced for the month of July (after a 40-year high of +9.1% the previous month), Commerzbank estimates that she’s probably past her climax.

The German bank stresses, however, that “the fall in the price of gasoline played a decisive role” in this development, stating that the overall rate would have been 0.4 points higher excluding this category.

‘In addition, prices fell for some goods and services hard hit by the pandemic, such as hotel stays (-3.2%), air tickets (-7.8%) and car rentals (-9, 5%)’, adds Commerzbank.

Also, she considers that ‘the problem of inflation should prove to be very persistent (at more than 3% during the next year despite a recession)’ and that the Fed will probably raise its key rates by 75 basis points in September.

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