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East-West talks on Ukraine are deadlocked. For ex-OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger it is clear that fundamental questions must also be addressed.
Most comments about the East-West crisis talks in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna range from pessimistic to scathing. Much discussed, nothing achieved, so the tenor. Especially since Russia is now announcing that it no longer wants to continue these talks. Former OSCE Secretary General and current director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, Thomas Greminger, does not take this at face value.
“Of course, a lot is also political tactics. Many of the messages that you have heard in the last few days are primarily sent out to make an impression and of course to also send messages to your home audience. » The climate for discussion in the negotiation rooms is not that bad. At least that’s the impression Greminger got.
It will take a lot of work and a lot of money and diplomacy to break through here.
He is convinced that the dialogue will continue, but he does not expect a rapid breakthrough: “It will take a lot of work and a lot of money and diplomacy to achieve breakthroughs here.”
Legend:
The stumbling block: Russian troops on the border with Ukraine.
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The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the OSCE, which Greminger himself led for four years, could and should play a key role. Because in the OSCE, with its 57 members, all the states concerned are involved.
“The OSCE is the most exclusive framework in which all these states, such as Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Georgia – the so-called in-between states that lie between Russia and NATO – are also represented,” explains Greminger. The organization would offer the best conditions for negotiating the controversial issues.
What is of course clear: the Russians also want to discuss these guarantees, and the Americans are much more reserved.
“In the OSCE, one could discuss military risk reduction measures in particular, i.e. questions of the transparency of large-scale maneuvers, but also measures to reduce troops and certain weapon systems in the border zones,” says Greminger.
NATO must not be taboo
Only: While the USA is now offering to talk about precisely these points, Russia is currently showing little interest. Rather, Moscow is demanding that NATO expansion be renounced and that NATO forces be withdrawn. “What’s clear, of course, is that the Russians also want to discuss these guarantees, and the Americans are much more reticent about that,” said the former OSCE head.
Greminger is certain: Despite their current refusal, the USA and the West cannot avoid at least negotiating the question of NATO expansion. “But I don’t think there can be a formal veto over a country joining NATO or the EU.” Greminger believes that a relatively rapid, if only selective, de-escalation with concrete first steps is possible, provided one is willing to discuss the fundamental issues.
Finally, Greminger sees the concern that an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine is threatening much less dramatic than some other observers: “None of the sides has an interest in a further escalation. The costs, the economic, the political, the military, would be too great.”
It is now Russia’s turn
In the short term, the risk is not that great. Nevertheless, it is important that the escalation is now de-escalated, because you cannot negotiate with a gun on your chest.
So it would be up to Russia, which could send a positive signal with a partial withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian border. At the same time, the US and NATO must be prepared to take Russia’s main concerns seriously and talk about them.