Vaccine pass: what effects on our neighbors?

Faced with the mad spread of the Omicron variant, which occupies a significant part of the 50,000 daily contaminations on average of Covid-19, the executive is accelerating its schedule. Parliament will be called upon to debate the vaccination pass from the beginning of January, eliminating the health pass in force since last summer. Elsewhere, several countries have already chosen such a measure. What about them? Has the vaccination pass had an effect on the epidemic curve?

Take the example of Germany. In early November, the neighboring country was plagued by an explosion of cases on its territory, with an incidence rate exceeding 400 per 100,000 inhabitants. On November 8, the region of Saxony then becomes the first territory to apply the so-called “2G” rule, allowing only those vaccinated and recently cured of Covid-19 to access restaurants and cultural places. Ten days later, Chancellor Angela Merkel generalizes the device to all regions as soon as the hospitalization threshold exceeds 3 patients per 100,000 inhabitants.

As of this date, in the country, 46,000 cases are detected on average over seven days, according to data from Our World Data. A rate reaching 70,000 contaminations in early December, before starting to drop to 36,000 cases over a week, last Monday.

But it is on the rhythm of the vaccination that the vaccination pass seems to have a more important effect. In just one month, the number of people receiving a first dose has doubled or even tripled, from 50,000 in early November to more than 120,000 by the end of the month. Same increase in the booster dose: they went from 2,125,113 on November 1 to 10,680,207, 30 days later.

Another example, in Austria, for which the vaccination pass entered into force on November 8, the number of first-time injections also continued to increase, after the arrival of a first health pass at the end of October. Still according to figures from Our World Data, every day, between 10,000 and 20,000 people reach out for the first time, in early November. At the end of the month, some days reach the figure of 30,000 Austrians, before gradually dropping down.

Contamination side, over a week, 14,000 cases on average were detected daily, at the end of November. The numbers drop to 3,000 on December 20. But that was without counting the total containment of the population imposed on November 22, a week after that of the only unvaccinated in the country.

Elsewhere, Greece, the Czech Republic and even Romania have also decided to set up a vaccination pass.

For all these countries, the goal is “to encourage vaccination”, explains Catherine Hill, epidemiologist and biostatistician. And if the numbers show, there is a downturn but “it doesn’t change much”, nuance the scientist. “It’s a way to calm the epidemic, like containment, but it won’t work if you don’t go and look for the unvaccinated at home,” she said, as the arrival of the Omicron variant which has turned everything upside down and which will soon be dominant throughout Europe.