Verallia: Oddo BHF slightly reduces its target


(CercleFinance.com) – Oddo BHF maintains its ‘outperform’ rating on Verallia shares with a reduced price target of 47 to 45 euros.

Oddo BHF believes that the main disappointment with regard to the 2024 guidance comes from the spread effect which will be very largely negative in 2024 (-138 MEe).

According to the broker, we should expect a 10% decline in EBITDA in 2024 (guidance of around 1 billion euros), including a particularly pressured H1 (-35% estimated).

‘For 2025, the group should return to better dynamics provided that the market returns to normative growth estimated at 2%.

We are revising our 2025 EBITDA estimate upwards by 5% to reach 1,100 ME’, indicates Oddo BHF, which recalls that the consensus is at 1,086 ME.

‘The increase in the dividend by 54% (initial objective of +10%/year) to 2.15 E (yield of >6%) for the 2023 results constitutes a good indicator of the solidity of the financial structure (leverage of 1.2 x vs 1.6x) and management’s confidence in its medium-term prospects’, concludes the analysis office.

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