VI Nations tournament: who are the favorites?


This Friday, February 2, the 2024 VI Nations Tournament will begin. France and Ireland, announced as favorites during the last World Cup, but both eliminated in the quarter-finals, are advancing as the two serious candidates for the title. England could nevertheless spring a surprise while Scotland wants to assert itself. Overview of the different protagonists for this 2024 edition.

France in continuity

Having fallen from a height after the failure experienced during its home World Cup, the French team remains one of the big favorites for this tournament. The Blues will nevertheless have to do without their playing master Antoine Dupont. The latter has in fact decided to skip the tournament to prepare for his integration into the French 7s team with a view to the Olympic Games and must now join his new teammates, on February 5, for an internship at INSEP. Among the notable absentees, we also count Romain Ntamack still in the rehabilitation phase after his rupture of the cruciate ligaments of the knee last August, or Anthony Jelonch, just injured with his club Toulouse and absent for many months.

Despite this, the Blues arrive confident of their strength with a group built in continuity with the world championship. Armed with a powerful back base (Penaud, Ramos, Danty, Moefana), an impressive hinge (Jalibert and Lucu) with the Union Bordeaux Bègles club since the start of the season and an experienced pack, the Fabien Galthié’s team also has the advantage of hosting three times during this edition, but we will have to be strong from the start against Ireland. One thing is certain, the new captain Grégory Aldritt will do everything to lead his teammates to an eleventh Grand Slam, two years after the last trophy lifted by the France team.

Ireland aim for double

As for the Irish, the 2nd nation in the world in the World Rugby rankings, we will have to learn to play without the newly retired Jonathan Sexton. Without his conductor, it is Jack Crowley (Munster) who should be entrusted with the keys to the truck despite his lack of international experience (10 caps). The captaincy was offered to the very experienced Peter O’Mahony (34 years old, 101 caps) who had for a time considered retiring internationally after the World Cup. One thing is certain, the XV du Trèfle will be able to count on its perfectly oiled collective game and the complementarity of its squad to try to retain its title.

With Andy Farell at its head, maintained despite the disappointment of the World Cup, Ireland will therefore try to continue its domination over the old continent which began almost two years ago. As a reminder, this team’s last defeat against a European competitor dates from February 2022 and a setback against the Blues (30-24).

England as an outsider

Almost a year ago, the English left the 2023 tournament with their heads down. The ouster of coach Eddie Jones a few weeks before the start of the competition did not have the desired effect and during this edition, the XV de la Rose suffered its biggest defeat at home against the historic French competitor (10 -53). But it is a reinvigorated team which should present itself for the 2024 edition.

England is notably the only European team to have reached the semi-finals of the 2023 World Cup. It had certainly benefited from a more affordable part of the table, but this XV de la Rose showed a certain revival of form and of confidence and could come and play the outsiders. Note that the English will appear without their usual captain and fly-half Owen Farrell. The latter recently announced the pause of his international career in order to recharge his batteries mentally.

Salvation will undoubtedly come from a fit and inventive Marcus Smith, even if the Harelquins fly-half will be absent for the first match of the tournament. Injured in the calf during preparation, the duration of unavailability of the 24-year-old player is not yet known. He could be replaced by George Ford or Fin Smith for the start of the competition. The English will also be able to rely on their experienced and powerful first line made up of new captain Jamie George and the imposing Joe Marler and Dan Cole.

Scotland looking for their place, Wales and Italy in the rearview mirror

The other three teams, it must be said, have very little chance of winning the trophy. Scotland, despite constant progress for several years, is still struggling against the big teams. Its third place in the 2023 edition is also due to the weakness of England at the time. Finn Russell and others will nevertheless want to demonstrate the opposite to try to establish themselves in the European top 3. They will have the opportunity when they host France (February 10) and England (February 24), with the trip to Dublin seeming particularly difficult.

Wales will try to continue their reconstruction. Particularly worrying for two years, Welsh rugby woke up during the last world championship by playing a rather exciting game before falling back into its shortcomings in the quarterfinals against Argentina (17-29). Coach Warren Gatland therefore has work to do to try to remake the Leek XV into the exhilarating team that won the VI Nations tournament in 2021.

Finally, for Italy, the issue lies elsewhere. The objective is rather to avoid a 9th consecutive wooden spoon (five defeats in five matches). Answer on the 16th, with, hopefully, a French team on the roof of Europe.



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