Almost 6 months have passed since the crash of a New Shepard capsule… and 18 months since the last flight of the VSS Unity rocket plane! What is happening at Blue and Virgin, who wanted to take the reins of this promising segment and its thousands of tourists? The technical reality is more difficult.
It’s not much easier to go into orbit…
After the crash…
With 18 passengers transported in 2022, Blue Origin seemed on track to deliver a record year and firmly establish itself at the head of the promising suborbital tourism market, these trips of a few minutes to the frontier of space. The company even announced up to 15 reuses of its New Shepard rockets before major maintenance while new specific flights were in preparation, with seats sold at auction for charities, a first all-female flight…
But last September, with the failure of flight NS-23 causing the ejection of the New Shepard capsule, those plans were put on hold. NS-23 was an unmanned flight, and if it had been, Blue Origin says the crew would have been rescued without major problems. However, the American aviation authority (the FAA) took part in the investigation into this accident, the file of which was to be settled in a few months. Despite everything, since then, radio silence: the weeks go by, and Blue Origin has not announced a new flight from New Shepard.
The firm founded by Jeff Bezos has always been silent, but it also has great ambitions for the space sector in general (engines, launchers, stations, lunar landers), as for suborbital tourism in particular. These 5 months of silence do not bode well, and the company cannot afford to resume flights as if nothing had happened. It will have to be shown that it has learned lessons from the crash of last September. Perhaps it will also be necessary to put into service a new booster with a new capsule, or to highlight new capacities. The beginning of the year (and maybe even the first quarter) will probably be very calm, but it would be surprising if Blue Origin ceased its tourist activities.
The safest plane is the one that doesn’t fly
On the Virgin Galactic side, this “air pocket” at its competitor would have made it possible to take back the crown of tourist flights from Blue Origin… if only the firm’s rocket plane was able to fly. Unfortunately, the company located in Mojave and Spaceport America has not flown since July 2021 and the famous suborbital experience of company founder, billionaire Richard Branson.
First entangled in an administrative investigation (the plane had exceeded the planned flight area), Virgin Galactic then began a long period of maintenance and improvement, for the VSS Unity rocket plane, but also and above all for its carrier which takes it to an altitude of 12.5 kilometers, the VMS Eve. This work was to last 6 months, then a year… Eve made an appearance on February 4 for the first “Taxi Tests” on the Mojave airport runway. He will still need at least several weeks before reaching Spaceport America and resuming the parabolas with the small rocket plane.
Virgin Galactic continues to talk about the second quarter for its entry into the competition on the commercial market, even if many observers point to inconsistencies on this timetable, given the various flight campaigns which have taken place in recent years at very long intervals. . Still, if the company keeps its promises of increased flights and pace (nothing is less certain), it could well play in the same court as Blue Origin in 2023.
Direction orbit?
For the latter, the options are limited. Without Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic available today, we just have to wait. On the orbital side, the landscape is just as blocked. The available seats are primarily distributed to agencies or partnerships with nations.
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule is set to fly by April or May for private operator Axiom Space, but with just one “tourist” and two Saudi astronauts, while billionaire Jared Isaacman has booked a specific flight for his private space program with Elon Musk’s company. In short, if you were planning to write a big check and go to the frontier of space or into orbit this year, you will need, as always, a lot of patience.
Source : Ars Technica
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