Vitalik Buterin and stolen ETH put the course under pressure

Despite the bankruptcy of the US trading platform FTX and the subsequent hack in which more than USD 400 million worth of Ethereum coins were stolen, the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency continues to trade 35 percentage points above its June 18 low for the year. Yesterday’s transfer of 40,000 ethers from Vitalik Buterin to an unknown wallet has not yet caused a sell-off. This shows once again how stable the ether course has been since the “merge” on Ethereum 2.0. In view of a new low for Bitcoin (BTC) and a sobering price forecast for the crypto key currency, as well as the fear among investors that the hacker could also sell his remaining Ethereum coins on the market, the Ether course is doing well. With a current price of USD 1,187, Ethereum is around 10 percent above its weekly low, which it formed on Tuesday (Nov 22) at USD 1,075. The bulls seem to be doing everything in their power to push ETH back above the first resist level at $1,232. Only when Ethereum dynamically undercuts the weekly low can further sales in the direction of the psychological USD 1,000 mark be expected.

Ether course is doing well despite uncertainty about Grayscale fund

As long as Ethereum does not come under massive pressure again despite news about the rescue of Genesis and new questions about the whereabouts of Grayscale Bitcoins, there is no sign of another dramatic sell-off on the crypto market shortly before the weekend. A first sign of a slight price recovery would be a jump back above the weekly high of USD 1,232. However, as long as the RSI and the MACD indicator in the daily chart cannot generate a new valid buy signal, a dynamic price breakout on the upside is questionable.

• Bullish price targets: $1,222/1,232, $1,273, $1,305/1,349, $1,390, $1,425, $1,489, $1,532, $1,574, $1,654/1,678, $1,723, $1,776

Bullish price targets for the next seven trading days

For the buyer side, it is anything but easy to remain confident in view of the risks on the crypto market that have been mentioned. If the previous weekly high is recaptured in the coming days, a recovery above USD 1,273 in the direction of the blue resistance zone between USD 1,305 and USD 1,349 should be planned. Already in this resist area, renewed sell-offs by the bears are to be expected. If the ether price also skips this area and can thus overcome the EMA50 (orange) and the higher 23 Fibonacci retracement and the supertrend at USD 1,349 at the daily closing price, a subsequent increase to USD 1,390 is likely. Ethereum would thus rise to a new 14-day price high. Only when the ether price can also break through this resist and also reaches and jumps over the price mark of USD 1,425, which is always relevant, will the next strong technical chart hurdle await with the gray resistance area. Just above there are several strong resistance levels with the golden pocket of the last movement and the trailing edge at USD 1,489. Profit-taking in this area should not come as a surprise given the current situation.

A technical price recovery in the direction of the monthly high would be conceivable

If Ethereum also leaves this zone behind in the coming weeks, the price recovery will extend to USD 1,574. This would put the November high of USD 1,678 within reach again. The sliding resistance line EMA200 (blue) also runs in the orange resistance area between USD 1,654 and USD 1,678. A reconquest of this zone is currently considered unlikely. If, contrary to expectations, a dynamic breakout to the north succeeds, the maximum price target between USD 1,723 and USD 1,776 is activated. The bulls were not able to regain this price level in September of this year.

• Bearish Targets: $1,150, $1,102, $1,074, $1,037, $992, $935, $882, $842, $720, $666/$634

Bearish price targets for the next seven trading days

If the seller side continues to pull the trigger and sells the ether price back below USD 1,150, the weekly lows will come back into focus. At the latest when the support at USD 1,102 is dynamically undercut, the probability of a retest of the recent lows at USD 1,075 increases noticeably. Whether this support marker can be defended a third time is questionable. Too many reasons for a pullback to $1,037 or below. An abandonment of this price level would make a correction extension to the lower edge of the purple support area at USD 999 likely. As in June and July 2022, this support area represents the make-or-break level on the downside. If the bears succeed in selling below the purple support zone, the correction will initially extend to USD 935. However, a direct sell-off down to the low for the year at USD 882 is also conceivable.

New lows for the year are to be planned for

In view of the recent uncertainties, especially about the stolen Ethereum coins of the FTX hack, a setback to a new year’s low can by no means be ruled out. The significant collapse in trading volume on all central crypto exchanges further simplifies this scenario. If the ether price comes under increased pressure again in the coming trading weeks and the annual low breaks through under increased selling pressure, an expansion of the correction via an intermediate stop at USD 842 in the direction of USD 720 is conceivable. In the medium term, the red support area between USD 666 and USD 632 would then become more likely as the next target area for the bears. However, whether and when the overarching maximum bearish target zone between USD 532 and USD 489 will be reached also depends on the interest rate decisions of the central banks in mid-December and on the movements of the classic stock markets worldwide.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.96.