Votes in Switzerland: AHV reform with intact chances

It is probably the most important vote of the current legislature: On September 25, the people will decide on the “AHV 21” reform, which would stabilize the social work financially for almost ten years. In 1995, an AHV reform found a majority at the ballot box for the last time. Since then, several attempts have failed.

But this time it might work. The first survey on the forthcoming votes by GfS Bern on behalf of the SRG, which was published on Friday, allows this conclusion: 64 percent stated that they definitely or rather want to vote for the AHV proposal. 33 percent wanted to reject it definitely or rather. As always, these values ​​represent a snapshot; the survey took place seven weeks before the ballot.

Retirement age opens gender divide

A lot can happen before the vote. Although GfS assumes that the opinion-forming stage is medium to advanced, the main campaign that is now to follow will certainly still influence this early picture. Nevertheless: According to the GfS, a reversal of the majority situation would be a surprise from today’s perspective. Such a scenario is possible if the opponents clearly gain the upper hand and mobilize strongly from now on.

The big differences between the sexes are striking: While 74 percent of men want to vote for the AHV bill, only 52 percent of women do. The reason is obvious: the most controversial element of the reform concerns raising the normal retirement age for women from 64 to 65 years. In future, they would therefore have to work and pay in for the same amount of time as men in order to receive a full pension.

Romands and Ticino are more skeptical

This idea is not only received very differently by the genders, but also in the different parts of the country: In western Switzerland and Ticino, only 49 and 50 percent respectively want to vote for the reform, in German-speaking Switzerland it is 69 percent. Not surprisingly, sympathizers of the bourgeois parties vote relatively clearly for the proposal and those of the SP against. The survey found an unexpectedly high level of approval among the Greens, but this too could change.

The OASI reconciliation includes two templates; both must find a majority for the reform to go ahead. The second proposal is about value added tax, which is to be increased once more in favor of the social work. The standard rate would now be 8.1 percent instead of the previous 7.7 percent. This template also has good chances: Almost two thirds of those questioned want to agree, 29 percent are against it. This template also requires the number of stands, which the survey does not allow any conclusions to be drawn about.

Well-known pattern in factory farming

The chances of the second parliamentary bill are a little less good, but better than expected: the reform of the withholding tax. According to the survey, 49 percent want to agree, 35 percent say no. The proportion of those who are undecided is relatively large at 16 percent. Even among those who have already mentioned a trend, the formation of an opinion is not yet very advanced. Thus, the two camps can still do a lot in the main campaign that is about to start.

The factory farming initiative, on the other hand, would currently achieve a narrow majority. 51 percent responded positively to the survey, 46 percent rejected it. But that doesn’t mean much: In this context, GfS refers to the last agricultural initiatives that came to the polls in June 2021. The initiative for a ban on pesticides, for example, received more approval in the preliminary polls than the current proposal, but was rejected in the end.

The issue of animal husbandry opens up a similar gap between the sexes as that of AHV: 60 percent of women want to approve the initiative, but only 40 percent of men. The urban-rural divide on this issue is comparably wide. Since the resistance is particularly high in rural cantons, GfS already describes the necessary increase in stands as a very high hurdle.