“Only one thing is certain, that is that nothing is certain. » This maxim from theNatural History of Pliny the Elder can be interpreted quite radically one way or the other: either the future is a dark and unfathomable cloud, or uncertainty is paved with opportunity. The leader or the employee will choose the path that suits him best, but one thing is certain, Pliny is telling the truth: with nearly two millennia in advance, he was already living in the “VUCA”.
A VUCA future is a delicate future. This word – or this adjective, because we often speak of a VUCA world or of working in VUCA mode – is an acronym derived from English, meaning “volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity”. It designates the atmosphere in which companies operate, all over the world, in the 21stand century: the term is so broad that it is used at will by lovers of great managerial speeches.
A little historical background: we are in 1991, the USSR has collapsed, the American juggernaut is jubilant… But he sees new emerging countries inviting themselves to the diplomatic table. The binary reading grid of the Cold War gives way to multilateralism, and it is difficult for the US Army War College to describe this new world… The latter gives birth to VUCA, a prism for analyzing the strategic plans that are coming: it imposes to be always on one’s guard.
An economic concept
At the turn of the year 2000, the economy took hold of the acronym: globalization and technological progress linked at full speed led to market volatility and upset the strategy of multinationals. Uncertainty, on the other hand, reflects the asymmetry of information of the different actors, unable to know how the others will respond, while complexity is explained by the multiplication of stakeholders. Finally, all information is ambiguous because it can be interpreted in different ways.
The management, or rather the ad hoc consultants, digested the term in stride, even if it is for example difficult to transpose on a human scale a concept as purely economic as “market volatility”. In a VUCA world, where everything goes to hell, the boss advances in a pea puree.
If we navigate by sight, the solution is a course, a clear vision: as always, the collective will be saved by reacting with flexibility, reactivity and agility. The response from leadership goes, for Harvard management professor Bill George, through a “VICA 2.0” : seeing, understanding (comprehension), courage and adaptability. In a gallery on the Forbes websitewe find “customer” and “agile” for the last two initials.
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