(CercleFinance.com) – Wall Street aligns a 9th session of increase in a series of 10 and a 2nd positive week… but what must be remembered is that the US indices have already returned to their levels of the 14 /Last September 15, that is to say at the same point as 8 weeks ago, that is to say well before the publication of the first quarterly of ‘Q3’.
Wall Street seems to have already turned the page on the rather ‘hawkish’ comments made yesterday by Jerome Powell, who explicitly questioned the effectiveness of the measures taken to bring inflation back towards its 2% objective.
In the wake of these comments, the estimated probability of a new turn of the screw by the FED in December has risen to almost 15%, compared to less than 5% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch barometer.
In the wake of the turbulence which agitated the US bond markets on Thursday evening (stable this Friday, the 10-year stagnated at 4.635%), the saloon doors have beaten quite brutally over the last 48 hours on the stock indices.
The S&P500 had lost 0.8% on Thursday (erasing the 3 previous sessions of increase) before regaining almost double this Friday (+1.55% to 4,415, the ‘gap’ of 4,408 is filled in the process). . with 90% of values up, which says a lot about investors’ appetite for all-out actions.
The Dow Jones rose +1.15% and the Nasdaq composite almost doubled with +2.1%.
The Russell-2000 underperforms once again with only +1.05%.
The Nasdaq-100 returned to 15,500 points (+2.6% weekly and +42% annually) in the wake of semiconductors in full euphoria, with KLA at +5.6%, Applied Materials +5.3%, Microchip +5.2%, Broadcom +5.1%, AMD +4%, NXP +3.5%, Adobe +3.3%, Intel +2.8%,… and the ‘fantastic 7’ have did well, like Nvidia +3%, Meta +2.6%, Microsoft +2.5%, Apple +2.3%, Tesla +2.2%, Amazon +2.1%, Alphabet +1.8% (6 out of 7 outperform the Nasdaq, and 7 out of 7 the S&P500).
Only one sector remained down this Friday, that of ‘utilities’ with only +0.3%.
‘WTI’ oil recovered +2.2% this Friday (but it lost 4.5% over the past week), which allowed a technical rebound in Devon +3.3%, Marathon and Valero +2.3 %.
Not many ‘macro’ indicators to get your teeth into and the only one that was published was literally ignored: American consumer confidence deteriorated for the 4th consecutive month, from 63.8 to 60.4 in November , according to the University of Michigan monthly survey.
The component of households’ judgment of their current situation thus fell to 65.7 compared to 70.6 last month, while the sub-index measuring their expectations fell to 56.9 after 59.3 in September.
In another area, a CNBC survey of households reveals that 57% of them think that the FED’s next move will be a rate hike compared to 43% who are betting on a decrease (compared to 80% on the decline for professionals of Wall Streets).
The Dollar (stable at 1.0680/E) has not reacted to the decline in American consumer confidence and seems to have lost its refuge status over the past week in the face of the conflicts still ongoing in Gaza and Ukraine.
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