(CercleFinance.com) – Wall Street could start rising slightly on Thursday following the publication of rather pessimistic statistics on growth that have fueled hopes of an easing of the Fed’s monetary policy.
Half an hour before the opening, the futures contracts on the major New York indices are advancing from 0.2% to 0.9%, suggesting a timid recovery in the first trade.
Weighed down by the context of economic uncertainty at the time, the US equity markets had changed little yesterday, which had not prevented the S&P 500 index from aligning a fourth consecutive session of decline.
After the solid performance of the stock market at the start of the year, investors seem to be waiting to see more clearly, mainly on the question of the evolution of monetary policies.
“Despite a series of positive developments in 2023, the outlook remains uncertain as all major central banks continue to raise interest rates, and the risk of recession in developed countries persists”, recall Credit Suisse teams in their latest ‘Yearbook’.
This morning, market participants seem to want to bet that the signs of a slowdown in the US economy will force the Federal Reserve to ease off on its rate hikes.
The GDP of the United States indeed increased by only 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the second estimate of the Commerce Department, compared to a very first estimate which was 2.9%.
This figure therefore implies a slowdown in growth compared to the annual rate of 3.2% which had been announced for the third quarter.
Jobless claims fell at the same time last week, which confirms the good health of the labor market in the world’s largest economy.
Yields on US Treasuries continued their rally that began at the beginning of the month, fueled by fears of a continued tightening of monetary policy by the Fed.
The central bank’s ‘minutes’ – released yesterday – showed that several officials at the institution remained in favor of rate hikes of 50 basis points due to high inflation.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries, which reflects investors’ expectations in terms of interest rates, picked up three basis points, well above 2.95%.
Oil prices are trying to rebound despite concerns about slowing global growth and the ever-present threat of a recession on demand for crude.
The November contract on US light crude oil (WTI) is currently rising 1.2% to 74.8 dollars pending the publication, during the morning, of gasoline stocks in the United States.
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