(CercleFinance.com) – The New York Stock Exchange should open on a slightly favorable note Friday morning following the publication of employment figures well above expectations for the month of March.
Half an hour before the opening, futures contracts on the major New York indices advanced by 0.1% to 0.3%, a harbinger of a moderate start to the session.
The employment report published early this morning confirmed the good health of the American economy, but above all fueled doubts about the evolution of the Fed’s monetary policy.
The Department of Labor in fact recorded 303,000 non-agricultural job creations last month, compared to 270,000 the previous month (revised from 275,000) and a consensus which aimed for around 200,000.
These data suggest that the labor market remains very dynamic, which could herald continued resilient growth and rule out future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
“We are entitled to ask the question about the timetable for the first rate cut knowing that economic indicators show that there is no urgency to do so,” reacts Mahmoud Alkudsi, market analyst at ADSS.
‘Can the Fed lower its rates as long as the monthly increase in payroll well exceeds 200,000?’, ask the Oddo BHF teams. ‘History invites us to answer in the negative’, recalls the private bank.
This statistic comes in addition to other indicators attesting to the robustness of the job market, such as the ADP survey or unemployment registrations, as well as cautious declarations from senior dignitaries concerning possible rate cuts .
On the money market, rate futures are reaching their lowest levels for several weeks, with market participants lowering the probability of a rate cut, now estimated at 53% compared to almost 60% yesterday.
Wall Street – whose ‘futures’ on indices indicated an upward opening – took the hit but in moderate proportions, these figures also maintaining optimism about growth.
‘When growth momentum in the United States is stronger than in the rest of the world, American stocks outperform,’ recalls Florian Ielpo, analyst at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
The dollar strengthened significantly after the publication, causing the euro to fall below 1.08 against the greenback, but doubts about the rise in rates did not cause a decline in government bond yields. .
The ten-year paper thus returns, at more than 4.39%, to peaks since the end of November.
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