(CercleFinance.com) – The US indices have started to rise again (‘full risk-on’) and seem to follow their own dynamics, apparently uncorrelated from any current events, starting with the most anticipated figures of the week …which disappointed.
But Wall Street is resuming its race for absolute records, thanks apparently to Oracle (+11.7% with an increase in demand for software dedicated to the ‘Cloud’ and ‘AI’).. because it is necessary to put ‘rational’ in what is no longer rational after 10 weeks of uninterrupted rise.
The S&P-500 (+1.1%) sets a new double record, intraday and closing (5,189 and 5,175 respectively).
The Dow Jones, which gained 0.61% to 39,005, finished above 39,000 for the third time in its history.
The Nasdaq jumped 1.55% to 16,265 and the Nasdaq-100 (+1.5%) finished less than 100Pts (or 0.5%) from its all-time high.
It would seem that this push – linked to nothing tangible, Oracle is only a pretext – fits perfectly into the scenario of a stock market boom 3 days before the ‘4 witches’ session which could see all US indices close the 1st quarter of 2024 at their all-time high.
The Nasdaq benefited from a strong return of purchases on the ‘titans’ of the rating, starting with Nvidia with +7.2% (at $920, or +86% in 2024), then Meta and Adobe (+ 3.3%), Microsft (+2.7%), Amazon (+2%) and Micron +3.1%, AMD (+2.2% with a P/E of 56).
Given the return of a devouring appetite for ‘risk’, we then wonder if the slight decline in T-Bonds (yield up by +4.5 points towards 4.1530%) has any link with the index of consumer prices (CPI) for February published at 1:30 p.m. and which constitutes – factually – a disappointment.
The CPI increased to 3.2% in February (annual rate) and +0.4% sequentially (after an increase of 0.3% in January compared to December)
Core inflation, the measure most closely monitored by the Fed, rose to 3.8% (annualized) against 3.7% anticipated (and to +0.4% monthly against 0.3% expected).
Neither the ‘CPI’ than the ‘NFP’ or Powell’s statements (rate cut postponed, again and again) seem to be able to stop the rally that started 20 weeks ago… the longest in history.
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