(CercleFinance.com) – Wall Street begins the month of December – and this week truncated by the Thanksgiving bridge – in line and on the same tempo as the month of November: in ‘rally’ mode and with a gain of + 0.75% (S&P500), still under the sign of the hegemony of AI as an essential investment theme.
The Dow Jones gained 0.58% and the Nasdaq surprised with +1.13% and a score of 14,285 (the index thus fills its bearish ‘gap’ of 14,215 on August 1).
The Nasdaq-100 (+1.20% to 16,027) returns to its highest levels since January 5, 2022: it is boosted by the ‘fantastic 7’ which gain overall +73% this year, and Microsoft beats a new absolute record at $378.87.
Microsoft is acclaimed for having offered the services of Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI, and Greg Brockman, co-founder of the company which created ChatGPT.
The OpenAI board of directors took the risk of landing Sam Altan this weekend: the entire AI research team (500 people) are demanding his return… or a majority would be preparing to join Microsoft (which would OpenAI be worth – estimated at $90 billion – without its original teams?).
NB: while Microsoft sees its capitalization exceed $2,800 billion, that of the ‘fantastic 7’ is now equivalent to all non-American stocks listed worldwide (Japan + Europe, + China + United Kingdom, + South American stock exchanges, etc.).
The highlight of this week will not be the FED ‘minutes’ expected at 8 p.m. tomorrow evening but the publication of Nvidia’s results which was expected just after the close.
But the stock’s upside potential seems limited given the 237% surge in the chip manufacturer’s stock price this year (and a PER of 115 to 145 depending on the calculation method, which is astronomical even with fantastic profits). ).
The Thanksgiving period, which will see the American markets close their doors on Thursday and only open for a shortened session on Friday, does not seem conducive to risk-taking before 4 days of closure: the essential is done, the Nasdaq has recovered + 14% in 1 month and returns to its peaks.
On the figures side, the Conference Board’s leading indicators, supposed to foreshadow the evolution of economic activity in the United States, continued their decline in October by 0.8% to 103.9, according to the Conference Board, which says it sees the prospect of a recession in the short term.
The ConfBoard expects that high inflation, rising interest rates and shrinking consumer spending will push the US economy into a ‘short’ recession.
According to the professional organization, the GDP of the United States should only grow by 0.8% in 2024.
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