The strong rise on Wall Street on Friday suggests a higher opening on the Paris Stock Exchange. The market will nevertheless have to deal with the first estimates of inflation in October and third-quarter GDP in the euro zone.
In New York, the three main American indices were awarded more than 2% on Friday, the jump of almost 8% of Apple, unprecedented in more than two years, counterbalancing the fall of 7% of Amazon. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite also lined up a second week of gains in a row for the first time since August. The disappointments caused by quarterly tech heavyweights were offset by good performances in other more traditional sectors such as energy with Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
Asian markets followed the movement this morning, but Chinese markets fell in reaction to the surprise contraction of manufacturing activity in the country in October. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the official PMI index fell 0.9 points to 49.2, against 50 expected by economists. The services sector was not spared with a decline to 48.7 points after 50.6 in September. Both indices continue to bear the stigma of the zero Covid policy.
The Fed and US jobs in the crosshairs
Global financial markets have risen recently, buoyed by hopes of a less aggressive approach to interest rates from the Fed starting in December. For now, observers continue to expect a 75 basis point rise in the Fed funds rate after the monetary policy committee meeting on Wednesday. Expected Friday, October employment figures in the United States could also give an indication for the future. On the bond market, the yield on the 10-year US bond went back above 4% to trade at 4.02%.
As expected, the European Central Bank raised its key rates by 75 basis points last Thursday and the rest will depend in part on the inflation figures which will be published at the end of the morning. Analysts estimate that consumer price inflation could reach a new high of more than 10%. Dutch central bank president Klaas Knot told Dutch television on Sunday that the ECB may raise the cost of money by 50 to 75 basis points at its December meeting. ” We’re not at halftime yet in the fight against inflation, he warned before adding: We are still in the process of bringing interest rates back to their neutral level, for which we will still need the December meeting. “.
Narrow victory for Lula in Brazil
It should also be noted that the contracts future on wheat rose by more than 5% this morning following Russia’s decision to withdraw from the agreement reached with the UN and Turkey to allow the transport of Ukrainian wheat. In Brazil, the narrow victory of Lula seems for the time being well perceived by the markets. The left-wing candidate won with 50.9% of the vote, against 49.1% for the outgoing Jair Bolsonaro, the narrowest gap in a Brazilian presidential election since the return of democracy 40 years ago. . However, the fact that Bolsonaro has not yet admitted defeat could create tensions on the São Paulo Stock Exchange.