(CercleFinance.com) – The New York stock market seems a little short of inspiration after the phase of euphoria of the previous weekend: the trend actually turned around in the afternoon, the S&P500 going from +0.3% to -0.3% (-0.5% during the last hour of trading), the Nasdaq, which was well on its way to breaking a closing record with a peak at 16,475, ended at most low of the day, at 16,315 (-0.4%).
Some managers wonder if Jerome Powell’s comments made last Wednesday have not been over-interpreted and if the FED will really be able to deliver 3 rate cuts by the end of the year if inflation rebounds in the in the wake of oil ($81.5 to $82 on WTI this Tuesday) or gas.
Even if the ‘VIX’ has hardly flinched, Wall Street seems less calm 48 hours from the end of the 1st quarter but it is not very serious because the balance sheet dressing should predominate and the rise in the US indices seems to be follow the logic of the previous 21 weeks of continuous progression since the end of October 2023, and especially since January 5 (+13% increase in the Nasdaq in 10 weeks, without any retracement).
Investors have just taken note of the figures for durable goods orders and then consumer confidence from the Conference Board.
The confidence index calculated by the employers’ organization stood at 104.7 this month, compared to 104.8 in February.
If the component of consumer judgment measuring the current situation has indeed improved to 151, against 147.6 last month, that of expectations has fallen significantly to 73.8 after 76.3 in February.
The Commerce Department reported U.S. durable goods orders up 1.4% last month from the previous month, following a 6.9% sequential drop in January (revised from an initial estimate that was of 6.1%).
However, excluding the transportation sector, which is usually erratic and where orders rebounded by 3.3% in February, US orders for durable goods only increased by 0.5% over the period.
Other important indicators will follow, such as the latest estimate of fourth-quarter US GDP expected on Thursday, but the highlight of the week will be the February household income and spending statistics.
This publication, whose price component is the measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, will make it possible to refine forecasts in view of the Fed’s next decisions.
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