(CercleFinance.com) – The New York Stock Exchange seems a little short of inspiration after the phase of euphoria at the end of the previous week: the trend actually reversed in the afternoon, on S&P500 going from +0.3% to -0.3% (-0.5% during the last hour of trading) to finish at 5,203, and the Nasdaq Composite, which was well on its way to breaking a closing record with a peak at 16,475, ended at the lowest of the day, at 16,315 (-0.4%).
Some managers wonder if Jerome Powell’s comments made last Wednesday have not been overinterpreted and if the Fed will really be able to deliver three rate cuts by the end of the year if inflation rebounds in the wake of the oil (from $81.5 to $82 on WTI this Tuesday) or gas.
Even if the ‘VIX’ has hardly flinched, Wall Street seems less calm 48 hours before the end of the first quarter, but this is not very serious because the balance sheet dressing should predominate and the rise in the US indices seems follow the logic of the previous 21 weeks of continuous progression since the end of October 2023, and especially since January 5 (+13% increase in the Nasdaq in 10 weeks, without any retracement).
In terms of today’s American statistics, investors took note of the figures for durable goods orders, then consumer confidence from the Conference Board.
The Commerce Department reported orders for durable goods in the United States increased 1.4% in February compared to the previous month, after a fall of 6.9% in January. However, excluding the transport sector, they only increased by 0.5%.
The Conference Board’s confidence index stood at 104.7 this month, compared to 104.8 in February. If the component of consumer judgment measuring the current situation improved to 151 in March, that of expectations fell significantly to 73.8.
Other important indicators will follow, such as the latest estimate of fourth-quarter US GDP expected on Thursday, but the highlight of the week will be the February household income and spending statistics on Friday. This publication, whose price component is the measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, will make it possible to refine forecasts in view of the Fed’s next decisions.
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