(Boursier.com) — The U.S. rating lost some ground ahead of the market on Thursday, in the absence of an obvious catalyst, and as investors hesitated, caught between hopes of a ‘Fed pivot’ and fears of a recession deep. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq are down about 0.3% pre-trade. On the Nymex, a barrel of WTI crude climbed 0.1% to $87.8. The ounce of gold goes up 0.2% to $1,724. The dollar index gained 0.4% against a basket of benchmark currencies.
According to the latest Challenger study on the subject, layoff announcements in the United States for the month of September concerned nearly 30,000 jobs, 29,989 to be precise, against 20,485 a month earlier.
Jobless claims rebounded last week in the United States. The US Department of Labor has just announced, for the week ended October 1, that jobless claims reached a level of 219,000, up 29,000 from the downwardly revised level of the previous week. The consensus was counting on 204,000 new registrations. The four-week average stands at 206,500, up 250. Finally, the number of unemployed people receiving benefits for the week ended September 24 reached 1.361 million, up 15,000 over seven days (1.350 million consensus).
This (relative) bad news on the employment front comes the day after an ADP report on US private employment which revealed job creations fairly close to market estimates, and on the eve of of the government report on the employment situation. Earlier this week, operators had welcomed the poor figures of the JOLTS report, which measures job openings in the United States.
We are therefore at the stage where, once again, bad economic news becomes potential good stock market news. However, all this does not solve the problem of inflation, which remains perched on its peaks or almost despite the semblance of a peak outlined for two months in the United States. The real-time FedWatch tool currently gives a 67.4% probability of another Fed rate hike of 75 basis points on Nov. 2 following the next FOMC meeting (32.6% chance). probability for a 50 basis point hike). The US central bank has already raised its rates three times by 75bp, the first time since the Volcker era. Jerome Powell and his teams have warned in recent weeks that this very tough policy should continue, the absolute priority being to bring inflation back towards the 2% target, at the cost of additional economic suffering.
Fed officials have therefore given no indication for the time being of a possible pivot, which would therefore constitute a change in monetary policy. However, on Monday and Tuesday, Wall Street played this scenario with a certain enthusiasm. Fed officials continue to warn of inflation and believe further rate hikes are needed.
The Fed’s Loretta Mester, Charles Evans, Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller are speaking out again today.
The US statistic of the week will be the monthly government report on the employment situation for September, published on Friday, the consensus being for 250,000 non-agricultural job creations after 315,000 in August. The unemployment rate should remain at 3.7%. Powell noted at his September FOMC press conference that the Fed had seen only modest signs of a slowdown in the labor market. The employment component of the ISM manufacturing survey fell more recently to 48.7 in September from 54.2 in August, the lowest level since June. The day before yesterday, August job openings meanwhile fell to almost 10 million from July’s 11.2 million, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, hiring, separation and of resignation having changed little. Yesterday, ADP reported job creations in the private sector for September slightly higher than expected, at 208,000 against the FactSet consensus of 200,000. Creations for August were revised to 185,000 from the previously estimated 132,000.
Values
Google (Alphabet) is looking to double its smartphone sales next year, reports the Nikkei business daily. People with direct knowledge of the matter told the Nikkei that the California-based company has communicated its goal to suppliers, from which it intends to obtain more than 8 million Pixel 7 units. Sources with knowledge of the plans told the Nikkei that the company was also preparing to launch orders for 4 million units of a budget Pixel handset.
Twitter. Elon Musk and Twitter could reach an agreement ending their legal dispute in the coming days according to Reuters, while the billionaire has already agreed to finally buy the social media network under the terms initially agreed, for $ 54.2 per title or $44 billion. The Wall Street Journal, for its part, reports that Musk and Twitter had previously informally discussed a lower price. The New York Times has learned that Musk initially tried to secure a $31 billion price tag, a 30% discount, but Twitter refused. He had tried again with a 10% discount. Finally, the deal would therefore be made at the initially decided price of $44 billion.
It should be noted, however, that according to several sources close to the question cited by Reuters, Apollo Global Management and Sixth Street Partners, who planned to participate in the financing of Musk’s acquisition offer, would have ended the discussions.
General Electric is in the process of cutting jobs in the activities dedicated to onshore wind energy, according to four sources close to the question of the Reuters agency. GE intends to restructure this activity in the face of weak demand, rising expenses and supply difficulties.
Eli Lillya laboratory in Indianapolis, has obtained from the US Food & Drug Administration the green light for an accelerated review procedure for the use of Tirzepatif in the treatment of obesity in adults.
Constellation Brands raised the high end of its profit forecast for the year, with the group benefiting in particular from strong beer deliveries. The group is considering further divestments in wines. The company posted a net loss of $1.151 billion, or $6.30 per share, for the quarter ended late August, after a profit of $1.5 million in the second quarter of last year. Adjusted earnings per share were $3.17, versus a FactSet consensus of $2.82. Sales reached $2.655 billion from $2.371 billion a year ago. The consensus was $2.508 billion.
McCormick envisages an increase in sales despite supply chain concerns and high inflation. The quarterly figures announced today are broadly in line with the preliminary figures revealed in September. Profits slightly exceeded expectations.
ConAgra beat the profit consensus, driven by rising prices. Business growth is approaching 10%, as the group has raised its prices to meet rising costs. In its first fiscal quarter, the American food group made adjusted earnings per share of 57 cents. Organic growth was 9.7%. The group maintains its forecasts for the financial year.