(CercleFinance.com) – The session ended better than it started, thanks to a clear decline in oil prices (-2%) which made possible a relaxation of rates (-7Pts compared to Wednesday 10 p.m.) while these The latter were testing levels not seen since October 2007.
The Nasdaq recovers +0.83%, the S&P +0.59%, the Dow Jones +0.35% (33,666) and the Russell-2000 which displays +0.87% to 1,794 returns to positive for the year 2023.
The decline of the Dollar (which peaked around 106.75 on the $-Index and 1.0491/E establishing a highest since mid-November 2022) since 9:30 a.m. this Thursday morning, has given some oxygen to export values.
The $-Index lost 0.4% again this evening towards 106.25, the T-Bonds saw their yield fall from 4.69 to 4.58%, the ’30 years’ from 4.78% to 4.7050%.
The relaxation of rates particularly benefits ‘techno’ and ‘young start-ups’ which consume a lot of cash, hence the rebound of Nvidia +1.5%, Intel +1.7%, Meta +2.1% , Applied Materials +2.3%, Tesla +2.5%, KLA, Microchip, Western Digital with +2.8%, then AMD with +4.8% and Sirius at…+15%.
And detached downwards, we find the exception of the day: Micron loses -4.4%.
Note the return to favor of cruise lines and hotel groups with average spreads greater than 2% (the drop in the $ brings relief).
The ‘figures of the day’ – good or bad – do not carry much weight because it no longer changes anything in the near future: the FED is fueling the anticipation of an increase in its key rate towards 5.75% on November 1st and doesn’t seem to be considering going back.
The US figures do not argue for a change in the FED’s plan: US GDP for the 2nd quarter is unsurprisingly revised downwards once again, from +2.2% to 2.1% (definitive).
The good news is that underlying inflation is falling to 1.7% compared to 2.2%… the bad news is that with a barrel of WTI at $92 this Thursday evening (its level average since September 19), this decline will not last.
The other bad news is that the job market – closely monitored by the FED which wants to see unemployment increase – remains very resilient: the Department of Labor reveals that registrations increased from only 2,000 to 204,000 last year. at the end of the week of September 23 (economists expected an average of 215,000 unemployment registrations).
The highlight of the week will be tomorrow with the publication of the PCE index, a crucial measure of inflation in the United States, at a time when the price of WTI per barrel is flirting with $95.
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