(CercleFinance.com) – The New York Stock Exchange should open without much change on Wednesday, investors being attentive to the evolution of the yield of 10-year Treasuries, which is approaching the psychological bar of 4%.
Half an hour before the opening, the ‘future’ contract on the S&P 500 progressed by 0.1%, but that on the Nasdaq 100 fell back by 0.1%, announcing an uncertain start to the session.
On the bond market, the yield on 10-year Treasuries is settling around 3.87% this morning after having come close to 4% the day before, a crucial threshold which had not been reached since the pre-financial crisis.
This slight lull in US yields allowed European markets to erase some of their losses from the morning. At the opening of Wall Street, the Euro STOXX 50 only lost 0.6%.
The recent surge in yields on long-term sovereign bonds is explained by the tightening of the monetary policies of the major central banks, against a backdrop of rising inflation.
Many analysts believe, however, that the yields of Treasuries already reflect the monetary tightening in progress, which leads them to bet on a next movement of ebb in rates with the slowdown in growth and the decline in inflation.
“From our point of view, the return of 3.98% reached at yesterday’s close by the 10-year American is approaching the highs that will be established during the current cycle”, predicts Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer of the wealth management arm of UBS
The analyst thus forecasts 10-year Treasuries at 3.50% at the end of the year, then at 3.25% by June 2023.
Risk aversion continues to benefit the dollar, whose index which measures variations against a basket of reference currencies has set annual records with a gain that now exceeds 15% this year.
Now firmly anchored below the 0.96 mark, the euro fell further to trade around 0.9580 against the greenback.
Oil prices are on the rise again following leaks affecting the Nord Stream 1 gas pipelines linking Russia to Germany, both affected by underwater explosions, which fuels suspicions of sabotage.
Brent now takes 1.2% to 87.3 dollars and American light crude 1.7% to nearly 79.9 dollars pending the publication, during the day, of weekly oil inventories in the United States.
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