Wall Street resisted somehow, Friday, February 11 in the morning, the day after the publication of appalling inflation figures (+ 7.5% over one year, a record since 1982).
Then came the warning about a potentially imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine and the White House’s call for US nationals to leave Ukraine. “It’s time to go nowsaid Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to Joe Biden, not ruling out an invasion during the Winter Olympics (OG), which are being held in Beijing. We are in the window where an invasion could begin at any time if [le président russe] Vladimir Putin decided to order it. »
The New York Stock Exchange then began to unscrew, investors fleeing risky assets: the S&P 500 lost 1.9% while the Nasdaq, rich in technology stocks, unscrewed by 2.8% after having already lost 2.1% the day before. Since the beginning of the year, these two indices representative of the American economy have lost 7.3% and 11.8% respectively.
On the other hand, unlike the day before, the yield on ten-year government bonds, which had crossed the 2% mark for the first time since the start of the pandemic, fell sharply, from 2.06% at 1.91%, investors seeking safe securities – US debt – regardless of their remuneration. It is in this same logic that the dollar, a safe haven, recovered, gaining nearly a penny against the euro (the latter fell to 1.133 dollars for 1 euro). Finally, oil prices jumped, the “West Texas Intermediate” barrel jumping during the day from 89.20 dollars to 94.70 dollars.
Low consumer morale
American oil companies rose on the stock market while airlines, vulnerable to geopolitical unrest, fell, as did semiconductor manufacturers sensitive to obstacles affecting production chains.
Added to this tense context is the blocking of the Canada-US border in Detroit (Michigan) by truckers opposed to compulsory vaccination against covid-19, which has led certain car factories to temporarily close their doors.
The weekend will therefore be devoted to observing the Russian-Ukrainian situation while speculation is rife on the action of the American Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank), now forced to act to raise its interest rates. ‘interests. Economists are speculating on the number of rate hikes needed to curb inflation. Goldman Sachs is now expecting seven hikes – the key Fed rates would therefore rise above 1.75%.
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