(CercleFinance.com) – Mission accomplished: despite a small break on December 29, Wall Street completed a 9th consecutive week of increases and the US indices ended the year at 0.2 or 0.4% of their annual or historical records ( Nasdaq-100 and Dow Jones).
The S&P500 (-0.28%) gained +0.4% over the week, signing its longest bullish streak in 20 years… but above all, it is a unique feat in history, without having ever lost more of 0.8% in 9 weeks, with the exception of -1.5% on December 20, immediately corrected by 4 annual records during the following 5 sessions.
The Nasdaq (-0.43% to 16,826 but +54% in 2023) and the Dow Jones (-0.05%) validate their longest bullish series since 2019 but this is the first time in the 21st that no consolidation of more than 48 hours materializes, with stratospheric rise/fall ratios (like the last sequence of 14 gains in 15 sessions, except this famous December 20).
The ‘fantastic 7’ finished rather down this Friday (Tesla -1.9%) but the 10 biggest ‘technos’ (including the ‘7’) collectively gain +110% in 2023 (with an average PER of more of 50).
Nividia +240%, Meta +194%, AMD +128%, Tesla +101%, Broadcom +100%, Intel +90%, Amazon +80%, Netflix +63%, Alphabet +58%, Microsoft +57%, Apple +48%.
‘Techno’ stocks as a whole gain +55% (the average PER is close to 40) and this sector is beaten only by cruise lines (+57%).
In a note published last night, Dan Ives, the star analyst at Wedbush Securities, once again said he expects a further increase of around 25% in major American technology stocks next year (the ‘fantastic 7’). + some semiconductors), which would constitute an undeniable engine for global equity markets.
Note that these ‘fantastic 7’ gain +103% this year (equally weighted) and provide 90% of the performance of the S&P500, a capital concentration never seen in a century, with the railway companies and John’s Standard Oil. D Rockefeller (before 1911).
No end of year champagne on the bond market but T-Bonds are showing themselves to be much more resilient than Bunds or OATs with only +1Pts on the US ’10 year’ at 3.865%, a level comparable to that of the mid-July.
The ’30 years’ deteriorates by 2 points and returns to 4.01% but paradoxically the yield of the ‘1 year’ and the ‘2 years’ improves by -3 and -2 points to 4.782% and 4.261% respectively. . the ‘3 months’ of -5Pts towards 5.345% because economists are betting that the US electoral calendar requires starting monetary easing very early in the year to adopt a more neutral position in October November 2024.
Oil ended little changed (-0.5% to $71.4 on the NYMEX) and lost -10.5% over the year (80/$71.5).
It is also an ‘energy’ stock which ends up at the bottom of the S&P500: Emphasis falls by -50%, closely followed by FMC with -49.7%.
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