Sébastien Le Belzic, edited by Alexandre Dalifard / Photo credit: Ina FASSBENDER / AFP
Despite twelve rounds of sanctions decided by the European Union, the freezing of 300 billion euros in assets of the Russian Central Bank and an oil embargo, Russia’s economy seems to be holding up. And it is China that keeps Russia on a drip by buying its gas and oil and flooding Russia with made-in-China products.
A year after an unprecedented avalanche of international sanctions, the Russian economy seems to be holding up. Vladimir Putin is seeking a fifth term and Russia is aiming for more than 2% growth next year. Paradoxically, Russia even seems in a better position than two years ago, when it invaded Ukraine.
“A cake that cannot be refused”
The Russian economy has trembled but is not sinking despite twelve series of sanctions decided by the European Union, the freezing of 300 billion euros in assets of the Russian Central Bank and an oil embargo. It is China in fact which is keeping Russia on a drip by buying its gas and oil and flooding Russia with made-in-China products. “What Russia is currently offering to China is quite phenomenal. Imagine that the situation continues over 5, 10, 15 or 20 years. This would simply mean that the Chinese domestic market would extend to Russia, which is a huge country. It’s a cake that cannot be refused,” underlines Carl Grekou, economist at the center for research and expertise on the global economy.
But a cake that can be shared. In addition to China, several dozen countries including India, Turkey and all the countries of Central Asia trade with Russia and continue to buy its hydrocarbons at good prices. Sometimes even resold in Europe, via ingenious arrangements which allow Russia to circumvent international sanctions.