Romain Rouillard (photo credit: DMYTRO SMOLIENKO / NURPHOTO / NURPHOTO VIA AFP)
Miles of trenches dug on the beaches, ditches and steel pyramids erected on the roads leading to Crimea. Satellite images delivered by the American company Maxar and broadcast by the washington post reflect Russia’s anxiety about the future of this territory, which it unilaterally annexed in 2014. What if Ukraine were preparing to carry out a counter-offensive to recover this highly strategic peninsula? The hypothesis is in any case considered with great attention by Moscow.
It must be said that kyiv repeatedly reiterates its desire to recover this territory which was confiscated from it almost ten years ago. “Our objective is to liberate all of our territories. Crimea is our land, our territory, our sea and our mountains”, declared Volodymyr Zelensky last January before reaffirming his determination last weekend. “There is no other solution for Ukraine, or for the world, than the disoccupation of Crimea. We will return to Crimea”, hammered the Ukrainian leader, thus rejecting the proposal of his Brazilian counterpart Lula for reach a peace agreement.
Strategic importance
An iron will that Volodymyr Zelensky did not always proclaim loud and clear, especially in the early hours of the conflict. “He said ‘we’ll see later’ and even felt at the very beginning of the conflict that such an operation would lead to too great a loss of life,” recalls Carole Grimaud, professor of geopolitics of Russia at the University of Montpellier. How then can such a paradigm shift be explained? “I think it’s linked to the results of the Ukrainian army, which notably recovered Kharkiv (the second largest city in the country Nldr). It made their hearts feel better and they said to themselves ‘we’re going to get there’. Talk to recover the Crimea also helps to support the morale of the troops and to galvanize them”, analyzes Carole Grimaud.
Moreover, the strategic asset represented by Crimea and its port based in Sevastopol on the Black Sea, maintains kyiv’s determination. “Crimea is the presence in the Black Sea. The maritime and naval bases are there. There are a lot of economic and energy issues”, insists Carole Grimaud.
Western deliveries soon to be operational
Recently, Ukraine even released a 12-point plan detailing the steps it would take in Crimea once the peninsula returns to its fold. A still distant prospect, but which is accompanied by meticulous preparations on the military level. Ukrainian soldiers are training hard to achieve this goal. What leave little doubt about the growing ambitions of kyiv. “So it’s been 5 months that the Ukrainians have been accumulating what is provided to them without launching a major costly offensive, so they probably have large stocks of equipment and ammunition”, points out Xavier Tytelman, aeronautics and defense consultant.
For Moscow, bothered by the idea of losing its territorial gains in Ukraine, it is therefore time for barricades. “We have already seen the Russians digging trenches and obstacles in the south of Crimea for several months now”, underlines Anne de Tinguy, professor emeritus at Inalco (National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations) and specialist in Russia. Western arms deliveries to kyiv are taken very seriously by the Russian camp, especially since the armored vehicles promised to Ukraine should be operational at the end of spring. Making even more conceivable the thesis of a great counter-offensive. The appearance of a private military militia, baptized “Convoy” and created at the end of 2022 by Sergueï Axionov, leader of the Republic of… Crimea, since its annexation, can also be seen as a means of additional defense in case of Ukrainian attack.
A red line?
It remains to be seen when this will take place. “I couldn’t say. Besides, it’s impossible to know, because we have no information,” says Anne de Tinguy. As for the risk of a disproportionate reaction from Moscow in the face of a counter-offensive intended to recover territories which it considers to be its own, all the experts agree. “Some talk about a red line that could push Putin to resort to strategic weapons. But in 14 months of conflict, many of these so-called red lines have already been crossed without this leading to the use of these weapons”, concludes Anne de Tinguy.