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Ukraine is celebrating the partial withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Crimea as a major victory. SRF correspondent Calum MacKenzie classifies.
That happened: Russia is moving part of its Black Sea fleet away from the port of Sevastopol and the western part of Russian-occupied Crimea. The ships are to be taken to ports further east on the Black Sea. Although there is no official reason from the Kremlin, it is reasonable to assume that the postponement is related to Ukrainian attacks a few weeks ago.
Legend:
In mid-September, Russian warships were badly damaged in the port of Sevastopol. Afterwards, the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet was also hit. Now there is obviously a reaction to the attacks.
Keystone/AP/PLANET LABS PBC
These are the immediate consequences: According to Calum MacKenzie, SRF’s Russia correspondent, the fleet relocation will primarily have an impact on the export of grain and other goods from Ukrainian ports such as Odessa or the Danube Delta. In the summer, Russia terminated the international grain agreement that regulated the export of these goods for several months – and at the same time threatened that cargo ships from Ukraine would now also be legitimate targets of attack.
Legend:
In the future, it should be easier and safer for transport ships from all over the world to head to Ukrainian ports – even if trade traffic is currently much less intensive than when the grain agreement was still in force.
KEYSTONE/EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
With the termination of the grain agreement, Russia has also increasingly made its ships into targets for attack, explains MacKenzie. “And in recent months, Ukraine has succeeded in gradually pushing the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of the west of the sea, even making the most important Russian naval base, Sevastopol, unsafe.”
The impact on the course of the war: Crimea remains a very important base and supply hub for Russian troops in southern Ukraine. “If Ukraine manages to continue to successfully attack Crimea and destabilize the situation there, it could cause problems for the Russian armed forces,” estimates MacKenzie. “But we’re not there yet, and Ukraine currently only has a limited number of the cruise missiles with which it recently attacked Sevastopol.”
Apart from the increasing safety for cargo ships, there is still no clear turning point.
In principle, the Russian Black Sea Fleet can continue to do what it has been doing since the beginning of the war: namely, bombard Ukrainian cities with cruise missiles.
Legend:
There will be significantly fewer Russian warships in Crimea in the future. “Apart from the increasing security for cargo ships, one cannot yet speak of a significant turnaround,” says SRF correspondent MacKenzie.
Keystone/Russian Defense Ministry
This is why Georgia is also affected: According to reports, parts of the Russian fleet are to be relocated off the coast of Georgia. There is said to be a base for the Russian Navy in the breakaway region of Abkhazia.
The Georgian government is sharply critical of the plans – although it has recently been moving closer to Russia and is wary of offending Russia. “Such a strategically important Russian base in Abkhazia would make it even less likely that Russian forces will ever leave the area,” said MacKenzie.
Protection for Abkhazian separatists: For MacKenzie, it is no coincidence that a Russian naval base is now to be set up in Abkhazia. The separatists there are likely to have closely followed the latest developments in Nagorno-Karabakh. “In Abkhazia you will have seen that Russia abandoned the Armenians as soon as it became geopolitically expedient for Russia.”
The Abkhazian separatists are now more aware than ever that Russia is not supporting them out of principle, but because it wants to put pressure on Georgia. “If this situation changes, they have to have arguments that Russia can’t just abandon them,” says MacKenzie. A Russian naval base could provide these same arguments.