With the approach of Ramadan, flour and semolina are snapped up on the Maghreb markets where soaring food prices are worrying. ” Inflation is the main risk of the war in Ukraine. (…) For African countries that are net food importers, there will be a direct consequence on food security and consumer prices”warns Aroni Chaudhuri, economist at Coface. The situation is particularly alarming for wheat, thirty-two countries importing more than 90% of their consumption.
Many are also very dependent on imports of refined oil, the price of which has exploded. Some hydrocarbon-producing countries will be able to benefit from a windfall effect, but it promises to be limited. “When a country does not have the capacity to produce fuel, it must import it. For example, 18% of Nigeria’s imports are refined oil, despite being the continent’s largest oil producer,” says the economist.
In addition to these economic issues, Africa risks finding itself increasingly caught up in the war of influence between Moscow and Western states. In recent years, Russia has repositioned itself on the continent, in particular through military partnerships. “A tenth power iron curtain rises between Europe and Russiabelieves Arnaud Kalika, who directs a seminar on Russia at the National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts. And Africa is becoming an extremely important square on the global chessboard. »