European countries around Serbia have closed their airspace for Sergei Lavrov’s plane, which was expected in Belgrade on Monday. According to the Serbian daily Vecernje Novosti, these are in particular the three neighboring countries of Serbia, all members of the EU or NATO: Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro. The Russian Foreign Minister was therefore unable to visit the Serbian capital.
In Serbia, no sanctions against the Russian invasion of Ukraine
At a time when Europeans are trying to isolate Russia and somehow wean themselves off fossil fuels since the invasion of Ukraine, Serbia is not following the path of its neighbours. Belgrade is even tending to tighten its relations with Moscow. On Friday, Serbia thus obtained a “very favorable” agreement for the supply of Russian gas for three years, announced Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. According to the Head of State, this is “by far the best deal in Europe”.
“In 2008, the majority of the capital of the Serbian gas company NIS was sold off to Gazprom. For political and energy reasons, Serbia cannot therefore get angry with Russia”, specifies Loïc Trégourès, doctor in Political Science at the Catholic Institute of Paris and specialist in the Balkans.
Admittedly, at the start of the conflict, Aleksandar Vucic assured that he supported “the territorial integrity of Ukraine”. Serbia even voted in favor of the UN resolution condemning “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine”. However, this country of seven million inhabitants remains the only one in Europe – with the exception of Belarus – to still not have taken sanctions against Russia.
The memory of the NATO bombings in 1999
President Vucic’s position vis-à-vis the EU and Russia seems to suit the Serbian population, which massively re-elected the head of state in office since 2014 in the first round of the presidential election in early April.
There is indeed still today in Serbia a strong Russophilia born of opposition to the West, which itself takes root in the bombardments carried out by NATO on Belgrade in 1999 during the Kosovo war. “The Serbs consider themselves victims of a NATO attack in 1999,” points out Loïc Trégourès. “There is still a trauma and a strong resentment vis-à-vis NATO. This is why, unlike other countries in the region, the Serbs are very opposed to NATO and reserved on the European question. »
Thus, this Serbian “Russophilia” “does not necessarily have anything to do with the war in Ukraine”, as Vuk Vuksanovic, researcher at the Center for Security Policy in Belgrade, explains to us.
The attractiveness vis-à-vis Russia is linked to the fact that it is perceived as an alternative model to the West (…) It is perceived as a power strong enough to irritate the powers of the West. And the war in Ukraine can also be seen as a “revenge” on American hegemony.
Vuk Vuksanovic
According to Loïc Trégourès, this feeling was all the more reinforced in 2008, when Kosovo declared its independence vis-à-vis Ukraine. A status now recognized by most countries of the European Union, but also by the United States and Canada. Russia, which has not recognized this independence, is seen as “political support for Serbia”, adds the researcher.
Putin, “a rockstar” in Serbia
While in many European capitals the first weeks of the war in Ukraine were marked by major demonstrations against the conflict and for peace, the same was not true in Serbia. In the country, thousands of far-right nationalists took to the streets in early March to support Putin and the invasion of the country. “What happened in Serbia, I haven’t seen it anywhere else,” says Loïc Trégourès.
“In the Serbian media space, controlled by the regime, Russia is treated extremely positively. So much so that it is felt in public opinion, ”explains Loïc Trégourès. The researcher even assures that more than a Russophilia, it is “a poutinouphilia” that is observed in Serbia.
Vladimir Putin is seen as a man who lifted a country that was down. He is someone who, in a way, avenged the humiliation that was done to Russia in the 1990s and who rose up alone against the West, therefore the Americans. It speaks a lot to Serbs who consider themselves victims of a historic injustice in the 1990s.
Loic Tregoures
After the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, tags in tribute to Vladimir Putin even flourished in the streets of Belgrade. On the markets, it is also not uncommon to come across T-shirts or other goodies bearing the image of the Russian president. “He’s a rockstar over there,” points out Loïc Trégourès.
Serbia still a candidate for the EU
Even if it avoids any criticism of the Kremlin since the beginning of the war, Serbia remains a candidate for entry into the European Union, and has been since 2011.
A candidacy that does not massively motivate the Serbs. As indicated The Balkan Courier, according to a poll by the Ipsos institute last April, 44% of Serbs would be opposed to their country joining the European Union in the event of a referendum on the question. Only 35% would be for it. For the first time in 20 years, there would thus be more inhabitants opposed than favorable to Serbia’s entry into the EU.
“There is disappointment in Serbia about the European project and a decrease in enthusiasm because people think that their country will never join the EU anyway even if it reforms or adheres to sanctions against Russia”, judge Vuk Vuksanovic. In the eyes of Loïc Trégourès, the membership process launched in 2011 and which has not made much progress is in any case “at a standstill”. “So few levers exist” to force President Aleksandar Vucic to impose sanctions on Serbia, he adds.
In the meantime, the Serbian president is trying to play the tightrope walker between Russia and the European Union. The meeting between the EU and the candidate countries of the Balkans, including Serbia, which will take place in a few weeks, could allow European leaders to put pressure on the Serbian president and push him to choose his camp. But for Loïc Trégourès, his country being both a candidate for the EU but also massively Russophile and extremely dependent politically and energetically on Russia, “he has a lot to lose by choosing one side rather than the other”.